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Thursday March 11, 2010 - 10:32:19 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 11/03/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis March 11,
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Retail
Sales. The Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers
based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US. It
is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer
confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy .
than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a
lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict a reading of -0.10%.
The Euro confirmed it is building the triangle that we
suggested yesterday, after it dropped only pips below the lower triangle line,
and then it bounced back and rose until it touched the upper line in a very
accurate fashion (please refer to the attached chart). The price is still
trading within the triangle exactly as it was suggested yesterday, waiting for a
real and decisive break for one of its limits. These limits have narrowed
towards 1.3658 & 1.3581. We can only hope to end this boredom with a break
of one of these levels. If the resistance at 1.3658 is broken, we expect the
Euro to jump and test the last weekâ€™s at 1.3734. And if this important
resistance is broken too, we will see the Euro flying to 1.3861. On the other
hand, if the support at 1.3581 is broken, we expect a test of the rising trend
line from 1.3442 as a first target (this line is currently running at 1.3477),
and if broken we will reach a fresh cycle low at
â€¢ 1.3581: the lower limit of the triangle
â€¢ 1.3477: the rising trend line from 1.3442 on the hourly
â€¢ 1.3379: Apr 14th high.
â€¢ 1.3658: the
upper limit of the triangle formation.
â€¢ 1.3734: Mar 3rd top.
Jan 26th low.
The Dollar-Yen kept
trading above the important support 89.69 all through the past 24 hours, and it
rose breaking the resistance 90.26, and as we expected reached a new weekly high
at 90.80, only 4 pips below our suggested target. With this obvious penetration
of 90.60, the Dollar is in a good position to achieve more gains, since the
technical plea in favor of the Yen (which is stopping accurately at a Fibonacci
resistance level) is no longer there. This advancement which reached 90.80 so
far, is invited to hold above short term support 90.06, in order to achieve more
gains. The resistance is at 90.60, and if broken, USDJPY will jump strongly,
targeting 91.60, and then 92.31. IF the support is the level which will give
way, this would be an indication that yesterdayâ€™s rise has shown all that it
could, and the pair will slip again towards 89.33, and may be the important
â€¢ 90.06: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
â€¢ 89.33: Jan 26th low.
â€¢ 88.53: Feb 4th important
â€¢ 90.60: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from
â€¢ 91.60: Oct 29th high.
â€¢ 92.31: Oct 26th
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
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