Thursday March 11, 2010 - 15:30:33 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
Targeting the Canadian Dollar Today
â€˘ China Inflation, Production Accelerate, Adding Pressure for Stimulus Exit (Bloomberg)
â€˘ Greece Paralyzed by Strikes as Unions Protest Against Plan to Cut Deficit (Bloomberg)
â€˘ LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) - Britons' expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose slightly to 2.5 percent in February from 2.4 percent in November, a quarterly survey from the Bank of England showed on Thursday.
â€˘ ZURICH, March 11 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank will likely leave interest rates ultra-low and stick with its threat of intervention at a policy review on Thursday, as it tries to balance optimism over growth with risks from a strong currency.
The central bank is expected to raise its growth forecast for the Alpine economy -- currently at 0.5 to 1.0 percent -- after a series of upbeat economic news and may also warn against rising risks of inflation in the medium-term.
All 45 economists in a Reuters poll said the SNB would leave its target for the three-month LIBOR unchanged at 0.25 percent and all 34 who answered the question expect it to continue to fight an excessive appreciation of the franc against the euro via interventions.
Black Swan Capital LIVE Webinar
Courtesy of the International Securities Exchange, www.fxoptions.com, Jack will be presenting a webinar today, Thursday, March 11 on â€śChina's Conflicting Relationship with the U.S. dollar.â€ť
Topic: China's Conflicting Relationship with the U.S. dollar
When: Today, 11 March 2010
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Please click the following link to register for the webinar:
We hope you will join us; you questions are encouraged.
Chris Lori, CTA - FX Workshop
Charlotte, NCâ€¨April 16-18
Chris Lori, CTA and Institutional FX Fund Manager, is a leading foreign exchange professional. He is the only institutional insider and Fund Manager who also shares his methods and strategies with other professionals and private traders. Chris will be making his only US appearance in 2010 at his Charlotte, NC workshop.
FX Workshop Includes:
2.5 Days Live Workshop with Chris Lori, CTA and Fund Manager
300 page resource manual
Online access to Chris' "Complete FX Course" for Workshop preparation and follow up ($399 value)
Online access to "Inside the Banks" - Course on Fundamentals and Interest Rate Spreads ($199 value)
2 Months access to hundreds of training videos and market reviews in Chris Lori's "Pro Traders Club" ($318 value)
$900 in Bonuses!!
"This workshop will completely change your view on how to trade in the foreign exchange market!" Chris Lori
For detailed information about the workshop, click here.
And to register to attend this workshop, click here.
Charlotte, NCâ€¨Hilton Executive Parkâ€¨April 16-18
â€śMany men go fishing all of their lives without knowing that it is not fish they are after.â€ť
Henry David Thoreau
FX Trading â€“ Targeting the Canadian Dollar Today
Waiting on the trade balance for Canada, eh? Well, at 8:30 EST weâ€™ll get Canadian capacity utilization, import and export figures and the trade balance.
The consensus is expecting an improvement on all counts. And though imports and exports are expected to pretty much offset each other, the gains from the prior period are expected to favor exports.
Regardless of todayâ€™s reaction â€“ up or down â€“ of the Canadian dollar, itâ€™s likely to be a big reaction.
I say that because the Canadian dollar is so far little changed from when markets opened up in Asia overnight. And weâ€™ve gotten through the markets opening up in Europe, too, without much change.
This tight, sideways trading inherently builds up momentum that typically lends itself to sharp breakouts, to the upside or downside. But to add to the pent up energy, USDCAD is trading right along its pivot (p).
That is, itâ€™s hugging a major level that can motivate a substantial price move. And on top of that, the range between pivot support (s) and pivot resistance (r) levels (calculated based on the pivot) are very tight. A tight pivot range tends to mean a powerful, wide-ranged day.
Though we havenâ€™t seen any action yet ... [Chart not available in text format.]
Some of the subsequent move will depend upon the risk appetite feel in the market when the data is released soon. But the Canadian dollar has been rather strong, relative to other major currencies: [Chart not available in text format.]
A number in-line with or better than expected may spark a move toward strength that comes to an end quickly on the view that the Canadian dollar is already over-extended (due to the view that Canadaâ€™s economy will fare better as the US makes its way back toward more normal levels of growth.)
But, the Canadian dollar is butting its head at major weekly resistance for the second time. If there doesnâ€™t appear to be any real appetite for risk, and if trade balance numbers come in worse-than-expected, then itâ€™s a pretty good better that the Canadian dollar gets hit hard today. [Chart not available in text format.]
Good luck today ...
John Ross Crooks III
Currencies are another asset class â€¦
David Newman hereâ€¦ â€śInvesting vs. Tradingâ€ť
How many times have you seen pictures of people sitting on the beach with their laptop in hand in those â€śTrade Forex, Commission-Free!â€ť advertisements? â€śOpen an FX account, quit your real job, sit on the beach and get richâ€ť is the implicit message. Itâ€™s ridiculous! But unfortunately that is what sells.
It doesnâ€™t have to be that way. You donâ€™t have to buy into the hype ... and you donâ€™t have to take that much risk in order to get involved in currencies. Trading can be profitable; but it requires extreme focus and discipline. There is another way if you want to â€śinvestâ€ť in currencies.
Investing in currencies for the long haul means using currencies as another asset class in your portfolio. An asset class that will stand along stocks and bonds and hopefully provide some much needed diversification.
There are plenty of low leveraged long-term investment choices available to you so you can make real money in currencies. They are called Currency Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
An ETF is a simple straightforward currency product that you can buy and sell in your standard equity brokerage account. Itâ€™s the same as buying any other fund traded on the exchange. We offer recommendations on Currency ETFs in our month Currency Investor newsletter. We donâ€™t recommend trading them; we do recommend investing in them using a long-term buy and hold strategy.
To sum it up: Our monthly Currency Investor newsletter is geared toward newcomers and experienced investors who are looking for a conservative approach to the foreign exchange market, and learning more about how the global economy works.
In plain language we deliver global macroeconomic analysis and actionable ideas geared toward exchange rate fluctuations over time.
Our analysis is comprehensible and our recommendations consist of ETFs, as I said. So donâ€™t get turned off by buzz words like â€śexchange ratesâ€ť or â€śforeign exchangeâ€ť â€“ this investing strategy is as easy to implement as buying and selling stocks.
Plus, at $39 per year itâ€™s a deal youâ€™d be hard-pressed to find anywhere else.
Thorough global analysis plus complete investment guidance ... and all for only $39 per year? You can become a Member of our Currency Investor service at our homepage via credit card or PayPal.
All the best,
Director of Sales and Marketing
Black Swan Capital
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