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Friday March 12, 2010 - 10:53:51 GMT
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European Market Update: Press speculation of a pending €55B deal on a Greek bailout propels risk appetite; tough rhetoric rising out of China on US export desire

Friday, March 12, 2010 5:50:05 AM

 European Market Update: Press speculation of a pending €55B deal on a Greek bailout propels risk appetite; tough rhetoric rising out of China on US export desire


- (IN) India Jan Industrial Production Y/Y: 16.7% v 17.0%e
- (FI) Finland Jan Preliminary Trade Balance: -€55M v €150Me
- (GE) Germany Feb Wholesale sales M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.3%e
- (FR) France Jan Current Account: -€3.4B v -€3.9Be
- (SP) Spain Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e
- (SP) Spain Core CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.2%e
- (SP) Spain CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (IT) Italy Q4 Labor Cost Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.4% v 1.4% prior
- (CZ) Czech Jan Current Account (CZK): 15.6B v 4.6Be
- (GR) Greece Q4 Final Q/Q: -0.8% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: -2.5% v -2.6%e
- (GR) Greece Dec Unemployment Rate: 10.2% v 11.0
- (HK) Hong Kong Q4 Industrial Production Y/Y: -4.9% v -8.6% prior; Producer Price Y/Y: -0.3% v -2.0% prior
- (GR) Greece Jan Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.5% v -7.6% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Industrial Production M/M: 1.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v -1.6%e

- Equities: Markets in Europe opened on a mixed but cautious tone. Sentiment from
Asia (ex-Japan) was negative on awash of speculation that China may take further policy tightening action. Core European bourses opened slightly positive except for the Swiss SMI. Losses in shares of Roche [ROG.SZ] following a disappointing Phase III trial for Avastin sent the SMI and a number of related pharma's lower. Shares of Carrefour [CA.FR] opened offered following a bearish note form Credit Suisse that had sector wide implications. Equities trended lower for the first hour of trade with oil, gas and mining names giving back territory. China's Custom Bureau responded to new US export proposals into 4:00EST; expectations that China would maintain policies to encourage exports turned sentiment in resource input and energy names. This upward rotation moved into higher gear following Austrian press reports that France and Germany would lead a €55B bailout package for Greece. Markets, specifically, financials rotated to session highs. Other individual movers included Yara [YAR.NO] that outperformed following formal confirmation that the group would not join a bidding war with CF [CF] for Terra [TRA]. BSkyB [BSY.UK] rallied on speculation that Rupert Murdoch may be forming plans to take the group private while Barclays [BARC.UK] rotated higher on comments from Bob Diamond that watered down acquisition speculation. Auto names have continued their outperformance from yesterday with German and French names leading. Trading volumes have moved higher through the session with equities looking to erase yesterday's losses, pushing back to within 2010 highs.

- Individual equities: Roche [ROG.SZ]: Provides Update on Phase III Study of Avastin in Men With Late Stage Prostate Cancer : did not meet primary objective. || Yara International [TRA]: Yara will not raise bid for firm from that proposed on
Feb 12, 2010 ($41.10/share in cash). ||

- Speakers:
China's Custom Bureau commented that the US export strategy was a threat to China's goal to retain global market share. The Bureau recommended a stable Yuan currency policy (in line with other Gov't and Central Bank views) and noted a rise in rhetoric in calls for change in the Yuan fx rate coupled with an increase in trade protectionism sentiment.*** ECB's Nowotny reiterated view that worst of economic downturn had past but that the growth outlook would remain weak. He also noted that Unemployment was rising and the risk of loan defaults in the real economy could be rising ***EU's Juncker commented on the proposed European Monetary Fund (EMF). He noted that the concept had to comply with the Maastricht stability pact and conceded that the Euro Zone needed new instruments to prevent new crisis . He reiterated the view that the EMF was not the solution to the Greek problem but would be an instrument for broad-based crisis. The EMF could be used against speculation and irrational markets but not to be used to avoid No bail-out clause. He added that details on financing EMF were not known at the moment and that the concept would likely need a treaty change and take years***Germany's Labor Agency forecasted 2010 average unemployment at 3.5M and added that unemployment situation likely to stagnate in 2011 *** Poland Central Bank Gov Skrzypek reiterated his view that Polish fundamentals pointed to a stable Zloty currency. The volatility in the currency was due to external factors and stressed that any further appreciation of PLN could hurt Poland's economic growth outlook***

- Currencies: Combination of tough rhetoric out of China on Trade and renewed rumors of a pending deal on a Greek bailout propelled risk appetite during the European morning. The USD was broadly lower against the majors as the NY morning approached. The session began with growing speculation that perhaps
China might announce a major policy change in either its interest rate or even currency. However sharp comments from the China's Custom Bureau diminished any change of a Yuan revaluation for the time being. The Chinese Bureau stated that the US export strategy posed a threat to China's goal of retain global market share. The USD was further hampered after press speculation arose that Greece to receive €55B bailout with over half of the amount coming from Germany and France. The dollar was lower by a big figure against the major European pairs and softer by 35 pips against the JPY. EUR/USD inching towards the 1.8 handle as the NY morning approached. The EUR/CHF cross moved below the 1.46 level for the first time in over a year. Russian Central bank (CBR) continued to lower the floating Ruble trading band boundary to 34.25 from 34.30 prior.

- Fixed Income:
Italy sold €5B in 5 and 30y BTP - at the top of the range of expectations. France announced plans to issue up to €8B in BTANS and €1.8B in linkers next week, while Ireland is also set to sell up to €1.5B in 6 and 10y IGB's.

- In the Papers: Austrian press report circulated that
Greece to receive €55B bailout with over half of the amount coming from Germany and France. Article noted that Germany and Paris agreed that Greece might need €55B until the end of the year to prevent insolvency. The German government would be ready to contribute €20B, the French €10B. Other member countries, except those that are themselves in trouble (Spain, Portugal and the UK), will have to contribute according to their shares in the ECB. ***FT op piece by the German Fin Min. ****Sydney Morning Herald looks at Italian local governments and derivative implications. Article noted that Many local governments were eager to cut financing costs for years rushed to sign up for complex derivatives contracts but some Italian cities are facing big losses when interest rates go up. Towns are now trying to pull out of derivatives and suing the international and local banks that arranged the deals. Article noted that In a test case, a judge in Milan will decide in coming weeks whether to try 13 people and four banks - UBS, Deutsche Bank, Germany's Depfa and JPMorgan - on aggravated fraud charges. The case stems from a derivatives swap over a 1.68 billion euro 30-year bond, the biggest issued by an Italian city. Milan is facing a €100M loss on the deal, city officials say. Milan is also suing the banks for €239 M in overall liabilities. Article noted that around 500 small and large Italian cities are facing mark-to-market losses of €2.5B on the contracts, according to the Bank of Italy. Analysts say that figure will balloon when interest rates go up

- Energy: IEA Mar Monthly Report raised the 2010 global demand forecast by 1.6M bpd to 86.6M bpd; and saw oil resuming its growth trend. It noted that the 2010 oil demand was raised higher on the back of demand from
China. Oil demand grew in Q4 following 5 consecutive quarters of demand decline. Non-OPEC supply forecast raised by 200K bps to 51.8M bpd

- Geo-political: First call results from last Sunday's general election in
Iraq are showing a tight race between current PM Maliki's coalition, Ayad Allawi (secular Shiite), the Iraqiya Coalition (Shiite) and Kurdish parties. Analysts had expected the results to be tight, but vote counting appears to be pointing to a much more blurred power holding regime than first thought. The UN had pushed for election results by Thursday night, but as that deadline passed, the difficulty of vote counting, and narrowness of the election has led to further delays. Successful results, and the political infighting that will follow in the formation of a ruling coalition will dictate the speed and cost of energy development. RBS analysts today noted that supply coming back on-line from Iraq will serve as strong headwind to oil prices.

- Risk appetite rises in session
Greece grinds to a halt amid strike. Renewed speculation of a Greek bailout in the works. Dealer are pondering if the European political culture is rewarding failure and political brinkmanship.
- China sharpens the rhetoric on the US's desire to increase its exports

***Looking Ahead:
- 7:00 (CA) Canada Feb Net Change in Employment: +15.5Ke v +43.0K prior; Unemployment rate: 8.3%e v 8.3% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Jan Current Account: -€529Me v -€1.0B prior; Trade Balance: -€15Me v -€711M prior
- 8:30 (US) Feb Advanced Retail Sales: -0.2%e v 0.5% prior; Ex Auto: 0.1%e v 0.6% prior
- 9:55 (US) Mar Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 74.0e v 73.6 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Industrial Production Y/Y: 5.6%e v 1.6% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Consumer Price Index M/M: 1.0%e v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 8.8%e v 8.2% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 11
- 12:00 US Tsy Geithner at Export-Import bank
- 15:45 ECB's Trichet


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