U.S. Dollar weakens after Euro Breaks Technical Level
The U.S. Dollar is trading lower overnight against all major
currencies. Investor demand for higher risk assets has been the driving force
along with short-covering. Economic releases have played a limited role in this
weekâ€™s Dollar movement. However, this may change today following the release of
the U.S. Retail Sales Report and Consumer Sentiment.
The EUR USD is trading sharply higher after piercing the
recent swing top at 1.3735. This reaffirmed the main trend which turned up last
week. The support base that has been built is bullish. The current chart
formation suggests the possibility of a near-term retracement to 1.4009.
Two factors are currently driving this market higher. The
first is the persistent rumor of Greek financial aid being delivered by Germany and France. This story began two weeks
ago when the Wall Street Journal reported a deal was in the works to provide Greece with as
much as $41 billion in aid. The speculated amount has since grown to $55
The second factor currently driving the Euro higher and
likely to continue is the fact that there are still over 65,000 net short
positions in the market according to the recent CFTC Commitment of Traders
Report. The easing of the fiscal crisis in Greece and the inability of the
Euro to break further means that the shorts are going to have to cover. If they
all head to the exit at the same time, then there could be enough
short-covering to drive this market up to 1.4009 rather quickly.
The GBP USD is trading higher this morning after a week of
consolidation. The high light this week was the release of a report on Thursday
stating that year-long inflation is expected to be a little higher. This helped
freeze the selling pressure and turn the markets yesterday. In addition, the
freezing of political tensions seems to be helping to boost investor
confidence. Although the trend is unlikely to turn higher on this next move,
there is room for a sizeable short-covering rally.
Despite a pickup in demand for higher yielding assets, the
USD JPY is trading slightly lower. Overnight the Japanese Yen weakened after
Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama told parliament the Yen was too strong. They
market could see volatility today as traders may drive the USD JPY higher
because of increased demand for higher risk assets, or out of fear of a
Japanese government intervention.
The release of U.S. Retail Sales for February is going to be
the key market driver today. This report is expected to show no change in
February after a 0.5% increase in January. Later in the day, consumer
confidence business inventories will also be released. A worse than expected
retail sales report will send the Dollar higher. A better than expected report
may increase demand for higher risk assets.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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