ÔÉėSwiss National Bank to continue intervening to
prevent appreciation of Swiss franc
ÔÉėChina regards exchange rate
peg as temporary measure
no hurry to adjust exchange rates
Although there is still strong domestic resistance to the
austerity measures in Greece, financial markets are starting to view the situation in a more
relaxed light. This is probably partly thanks to prime minister George
Papandreou‚Äôs goodwill tour to the US, and partly as a result of the proposal to set up a
European Monetary Fund (even though the ECB seems to be showing little
enthusiasm for the idea). During the course of the week, EUR-USD firmed
somewhat to almost 1.38.
On Thursday, the Swiss central bank published its quarterly
monetary policy assessment. According to the SNB, the signs of an economic recovery
are becoming increasingly evident, albeit in an uncertain environment. The bank
confirmed its current expansionary monetary policy but, as in the previous
quarter, indicated that over the entire forecast horizon (which also includes 2012)
interest rates were set to rise. The SNB again confirmed its willingness to
intervene by reiterating the standard phrase that it will act decisively to
prevent an excessive appreciation of the franc. In the last few weeks, the SNB
had intervened repeatedly when the franc had risen to about 1.46 against the
Peking‚Äôs exchange rate
Last week, PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan caused a stir by stating
that the yuan‚Äôs peg to the dollar (since summer 2008) had been introduced as a
special measure to combat the financial crisis. Some market participants
interpreted this comment as a signal that there could soon be some movement in
the USD-CNY exchange rate.
The PBoC oracle does not, however, give any indication of
when that temporary exchange rate peg will be abolished. Minister of commerce, Chen
Deming, for instance, said that it would take Chinese exports two to three
years to get back to pre-crisis levels. The head of SAFE (China‚Äôs State
Administration of Foreign Exchange) stated that China wanted to keep the exchange
rate ‚Äúbasically stable‚ÄĚ, a phrase also used by China‚Äôs premier Wen Jiabao in
his speech before the National People‚Äôs Congress.
This week saw the release of numerous Chinese economic data.
The fact that in February inflation had accelerated to 2.7% from 1.5% the
previous year caused a lot of concern. Inflation could well rise to over 3% in
the next few months, but this should not be overdramatised, in our opinion. Food
prices are the main driver of inflation; they have risen by over 6%. It should
be borne in mind, however, that the exceptionally bad weather of the past few
months and particularly strong demand in the run-up to Chinese New Year will
have played a significant role.
The foreign trade figures indicate that export growth
momentum is moderating. At $22bn, the trade balance surplus in the first two
months of this year has dropped by almost half compared to the previous year.
Exports in January and February combined have returned to the level of the beginning
of 2008, imports, however, have risen
Credit growth in China is still very robust, however. Admittedly the volume of new
bank loans dropped from 1390 to 700bn yuan in February, but that is still a
very large amount, particularly for a month influenced by New Year
celebrations. Despite the sharp increase in 2009, bank loans grew by almost 30%
year-on-year. At 23%, money supply growth (M2) was extremely high, even by
Chinese standards. The benchmark for money supply growth is around 17%.
In our view, however, there is at present little danger of
the Chinese economy overheating. The export sector is recovering but exports
are not generating the momentum. Investment activity is particularly buoyant,
especially as loans are easy to come by and households and companies have large
amounts of liquidity at their disposal. In our view, this constellation
suggests further monetary policy tightening by raising interest rates and deposit
reserve ratios. From China‚Äôs point of view, an appreciation of the yuan, which would dampen
exports, is not urgent. Furthermore, it is uncertain whether an appreciation of
the yuan would slow down capital inflows from abroad or boost them.
We expect the Chinese economy to at best allow very cautious
exchange rate changes. But the yuan is likely to remain in the spotlight in the
next few weeks. This week US president Barack Obama joined the debate by pressing China to move to a ‚Äúmore market-oriented‚ÄĚ exchange rate. US
policymakers will have a further opportunity to criticise China and make trade policy threats in mid-April in the
semiannual report on ‚ÄúInternational Economic and Exchange Rate Policies‚ÄĚ, in which
the US Treasury Department decides whether a currency is being unfairly
manipulated. But the US government will presumably wish to avoid an escalation of
Stephan Rieke +49 69 718-4114
Grabbe / Klaus N√§fken
report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and
its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the information
of its clients. The information
and opinions in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and
acting in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is
made by any member of the BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or
correctness. Opinions and recommendations are given in good faith but without
legal responsibility and are subject to change without notice. The information
does not constitute advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of
suitability would be owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision.
Moreover, you should seek your own advice as to the suitability of an
investment matter mentioned herein. Investors are reminded that the price of
securities and the income from them can go down as well as up and that the past
performance of an investment or a market is not necessarily indicative for
future results. This document is for information
purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities
mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this document is not, and
should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to
buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its officers and
employees may have a long or short position or engage in transactions in any of
the securities mentioned in this document, or in any related securities. This
publication must not be distributed in the United
rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 19 June 2018 A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts Wed 20 June 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 June 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 22 June 2018 AFlash PMIs
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.