The Dollar is trading higher overnight as traders await key
economic reports and tomorrowâ€™s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.
Overnight, traders are reacting to less demand for risk on concerns over a Greek
bailout and a debt cut for the U.K.
Key reports today include Empire State Manufacturing,
Treasury International Capital and Industrial Production.
The Empire State Manufacturing Report is expected to show a
drop from 24.91 to 22.00.Economists
base their forecast on a decline in the new order index. This report is based
on a survey of manufacturing executives. A number below 22.00 is a sign of a
slowing economy. This would likely support the Dollar by triggering less demand
for higher yielding assets.
The Treasury International Capital Report shows the flow of
financial instruments into and out of the U.S. This report, which measures
foreign demand for our debt and assets, is important because of its effect on
Bonds and the Dollar. Strong inflows put downward pressure on interest rates.
This also underpins the value of the Dollar since foreigners must purchase
Dollars in order to buy our securities. Traders want to see increased foreign
interest in our financial assets.
Industrial Production is called unchanged with economists
guessing at a range of -0.4% to 0.2%. Recently higher Philadelphia Fed and New
York Manufacturing reports have been offset by the lower ISM Index.The Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to
drop to 72.4%.A stronger number could
boost equity prices and demand for higher risk assets. This could pressure the
The U.S. Dollar is at that point once again where traders
canâ€™t decide whether to sell it on good economic news and demand higher risk
assets or buy it on the good economic news. At times last week the stronger
stock market put pressure on the Dollar, but there were also instances where
both the Dollar and equities rose. This condition indicates the markets may be
going through a transition period which could lead to a sideways trading
What is clear today is that risk aversion is driving the
U.S. Dollar higher overnight. Falling equity markets triggered the initial
strength in the Dollar last night in Asia.
Traders once again are expressing their concerns about the sustainability of
the global economic recovery.
The EUR USD is trading lower overnight on reports that a few
Euro Region finance ministers are rejecting the idea of a bailout for Greece. Over
the weekend ahead of the start of todayâ€™s two-day meeting in Brussels, German Finance Minister Schaeuble
and French Finance Minister Lagarde downplayed the possibility of a bailout
package. This news was contrary to reports last week which speculated on a $41
billion bailout proposal from German and France.
The GBP USD is trading sharply lower overnight as traders
are speculating that the U.K.
will be unable to service its debt, thereby increasing the odds of a credit
downgrade by Moodyâ€™s. The CFTC is also reporting in its Commitment of Traderâ€™s
Report that the number of net short traders is at 67,549 as of March 2nd.
Political uncertainty which could lead to a â€śhung parliamentâ€ť is also
contributing to todayâ€™s weakness. Continue to look for downside pressure on the
Despite demand for lower risk assets, the USD JPY is trading
higher. Concerns that the Japanese government may begin implementing a plan to
ease the rise in the Yen is weighing on the currency and supporting the Dollar.
The fall in the Euro is helping to halt the slide in the USD
CHF. Traders expect another round of intervention by the Swiss National Bank if
the Euro continues to decline. A turnaround in the Euro today will strengthen
the Swiss Franc and send the USD CHF toward the 50% price at 1.0513.
The USD CAD is under a little pressure overnight, but
trading inside of Fridayâ€™s range. Downside momentum is building for a test of
parity over the near-term. For the most part, traders are looking for traders
are ignoring the overnight demand for higher risk assets and focusing on the
improving Canadian government.
The AUD USD confirmed Fridayâ€™s closing price reversal top
with a follow-through break last night. Lower demand for higher risk is driving
this market down. The chart indicates that a move to .8997 is likely if traders
decide to begin dumping risk more aggressively.
Lower demand for risk and concerns about the New Zealand
economy are putting some slight downside pressure on the NZD USD. A sharp break
equity markets today could trigger more weakness throughout the day.
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