Monday March 15, 2010 - 18:26:37 GMT
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FXTimes: Daily Technical Update AUD/NZD Elliott Wave Counts
AUD/NZD Elliott Wave Counts
- Weekly: Looking at the weekly, first note the
break above resistance that was at 1.029. The Aussie has outperformed
the Kiwi, although both are strong currencies in the global sense. The
rally from 1.20 to 1.28 is either I or A wave. The correction to 1.23
was either II or B.
- That brings us to the current upswing, which could be developing
either III, or B (see in Daily below). Projection for III goes to 1.35
(138.2% expansion of wave I).
- The weekly shows a bounce from above the channel support IF the
market has a correction. So far, it looks ready for one, but there has
not been a signal. If it does correct, the 1.2850 or 1.27 could be
support. Letâ€™s look for more clues inthe daily.
- Daily: The market is overbought, and due for a
correction. The initial strong rejection at 1.29 should caution us that
this correction could be very minor.
- The count for December 09 througout Jan 2010 shows an a-b-c
correction. A (c), we also completed II or B. Now the current swing may
have completed wave (1) and onto wave (2). Counter to my intuition
about the strong rejection at 1.29, the second wave tends to be a
major correction, for example to the 61.8% retracement or 1.27 level.
The 4H time-frame shows more detail of the development of (2).
- 4H: We may have completed (a) and (b) of wave (2).
Wave (c) could extende either to 1.2920 or 1.2850. 1.2920 is the
conservative swing projection of (a) onto (c), truncating the tail that
showed the 1.29 rejection.
- If the market is supported above 1.2920, look for it break above
the declining resistance, and then onto 1.32, which is projection for
C. However, if the market is in an impulse mode, then the 1.32 would
not hold, and the next projection would be 1.35 (projection of wave
III; refer to weekly chart).
Commodity Trading Advisor
Information and opinions contained in this report are for
educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice.
While the information contained herein was obtained from sources
believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or
completeness. CMS will not accept liability for any loss of profit or
damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of
or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.
Foreign currency trading is not conducted on an exchange. CMS is
acting as a counterparty to its clientsâ€™ transactions and as a result,
CMSâ€™ interests may be in conflict with its clients. Since CMS acts as
the buyer or seller in the transaction one should carefully evaluate
any trade recommendation provided by CMS or any of its solicitors.
Foreign currency trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may
not be suitable for all investors.
All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.
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