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Tuesday March 16, 2010 - 09:50:44 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 16/03/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis March 16,
BoJ Press Conference
March 17th: Bank of Japan will be holding a press
conference, their preferred method of communicating with investors. Topics at
such conferences generally include economic outlook, inflation and changes in
yesterday â€śTo maintain this positive outlook, the Euro should hold above the
most important support for the short term 1.3635. But of course, a correction
wonâ€™t harm the outlook, as long as it holds above this support.â€ť And it seems
that the Euro was eavesdropping! The price broke the support 1.3726, and dropped
as expected in a correction which stopped only 3 pips before the â€śideal targetâ€ť
1.3635! As we can see in the chart, yesterdayâ€™s low was close to 2 important
support levels: the upper line in the triangle & Fibonacci 61.8%.Thus, the
outlook is still positive and will be as long as we are above 1.3635. This is
the â€śsupport of the dayâ€ť & if broken, we expect the Euro to drop strongly,
and target 1.3543 first, and may be the important 1.3480 after that. The
resistance is at 1.3743 & breaking it would indicate a resumption of the
uptrend that followed the break of the triangle. The next set of targets will be
the important 1.3838, and may be we will see 1.3928, while the Euro approaches
the 1.40 important landmark.
â€˘ 1.3635: Fibonacci
61.8% for the short term.
â€˘ 1.3543: Mar 10th low.
â€˘ 1.3480: the rising
trend line from 1.3442 on the hourly chart.
1.3734: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€˘ 1.3838: Feb 9th high.
1.3928: Jul 3rd low.
yesterdayâ€™s report was issued, the Dollar-Yen rose to 90.78 (2 pips above the
resistance of the report 90.76), then the expected drop started breaking the
support 90.33, and reached 89.97 so far. Although the downtrend did not reach
its expected targets, and hardly gained 80 pips from yesterdayâ€™s top, but we
believe that the technical evidences have triumphed. And today they are still
pointing lower, especially after breaking 90.33. We expect the â€śshooting starâ€ť
pattern that happened on Friday to keep pressuring the price, driving it down.
Short term resistance is at 90.47 which combines Fibonacci 61.8% for yesterdayâ€™s
drop, with the retest level of the rising trend line from 89.61 which was broken
yesterday. The downtrend will be ok as long as we are below this level. But if
it is broken, the direction will be opposite to all the technical evidences that
point down. And the price will jump to 91.07 & 91.60. While the support is
at 90.02, and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop which
started yesterday at 90.78. The next set of targets will be 89.37 &
â€˘ 90.02: important intraday support.
89.37: Mar 2nd low
â€˘ 88.72: Feb 26th low.
90.47: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€˘ 91.07: Fridayâ€™s low.
Oct 29th high.
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
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