Earlier this afternoon, the Federal Reserve left its
benchmark interest rate unchanged and reiterated that interest rates would
remain low for â€śan extended periodâ€ť. In its statement, it also mentioned that
inflation remains subdued, and that the weak employment situation seems to have
stabilized. While this may sound rosy, the Fed did express concerns about
housing and employer reluctance to increase payrolls.
The tone of the statement suggests that while the Fed seems
to have a plan as to how to begin reducing stimulus and returning interest
rates to normal, it still is having trouble deciding when to initiate the first
rate hike. One obstacle it faces is the possibility it will kill the recovery
if it hikes too soon. The other more important obstacle is inflation. Although
by its standards, inflation is low, there is a possibility that all of the
liquidity that has been pumped into the financial system may trigger a spike in
The overall dovish tone of the statement gave the go ahead
for traders to continue to use the Dollar as a funding currency thereby driving
up demand for higher risk assets.
June Crude Oil rebounded after a two-day sell-off. Increased
demand for risk is making commodities more attractive. Technically, a failure
to take out the main top at 83.80 on this current rally will indicate the start
of a down turn, but this is unlikely since the Fed green lit higher prices by
deciding to keep interest rates low.
The U.S. Dollar weakened after the Fedâ€™s dovish statement.
This weakness helped to boost April Gold prices into the close. The recent
break in gold stopped short of the late February bottom at $1088.50 to maintain
the uptrend. The current rally has reached the 50% level of the recent range of
$1145.80 to $1097.30. Further weakness in the Dollar should continue to drive
precious metals higher.
Gold bugs came in on Monday to support prices after the hard
sell-off in the British Pound triggered concerns that the currency would
collapse over concerns about its ability to service its debt and a possible cut
in its credit rating. As long as this is an issue, look for buyers to support
gold as they debate whether hard assets are a better investment than paper
Stock indices close higher but slightly off their highs. The
markets were up from the start, boosted by demand for higher yielding assets. Later
in the session, the Fed helped the indices reach new intraday highs by
promising to keep interest rates low for a prolonged period of time. Although
the trend is up, traders have been reluctant to chase the markets higher. This
means they are still susceptible to profit-taking breaks.
June Treasury Bonds surged to the upside after the Fed left
interest rates unchanged. Nothing in the Fed statement hinted at as to when the
Fed would begin hiking interest rates. This helped investors gain confidence in
trading the long side of the market.
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Mon 23 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 July 2018 AFlash PMIs Wed 25 July 2018 A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 July 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Durable Goods Fri 27 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- GDP A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
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