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Wednesday March 17, 2010 - 11:53:26 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 17/03/2010Forexpros Daily Analysis March 17,
Core CPI (MoM)
Traders of the US await the publication of the Core
Consumer Price Index (CPI). The index measures the changes in the price of goods
and services excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the
perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing
trends and inflation in the US. A higher than expected reading should be taken
as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising
rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected
reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a
reading of 0.10%.
spent the whole last 24 hours above the important 1.3635 support, broke the
1.3734, and approached 1.38 again, reaching 1.3785 until the moment of preparing
this report, 9 pips below Fridayâ€™s top. This behavior comes in agreement, with
technical outlook that we have adopted in the past 2 days after 1.3635 survived
the test. But, the Euro was supposed to achieve more than this, and not to stop
on the first barrier on the way up 1.3794. The most important support for the
short term now is 1.3742, and holding above it is crucial in order to achieve
more gains. But if broken, we will head to another test of the important 1.3635,
and breaking it would topple the price to 1.3543. The nearest resistance is
1.3794, and if broken, the positive technical outlook will be confirmed, and we
will finally see the important resistance levels above 1.38, the most important
for today is 1.3861, and may be we will then see 1.3936, while the Euro
approaches the 1.40 important landmark.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro term.
â€¢ 1.3635: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
â€¢ 1.3543: Mar 10th low.
â€¢ 1.3794: Fridayâ€™s
â€¢ 1.3861: Jan 29th low.
â€¢ 1.3938: Jan 28th
Opposite to what is
expected, the Dollar-Yen held above the support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report
90.02, and broke the resistance 90.47, but the movement was extremely limited,
with the price topping at 90.66. We have adjusted the lines that frame the
current area, to make the upper limit at Mondayâ€™s top 90.78, which is very close
to last Wednesdayâ€™s top 90.80. The lower limit is provided by the rising trend
line from 89.61 on the hourly chart, and is currently at 90.12, which was tested
yesterday, and passed the test. In case we broke the resistance 90.78 we will
see the Dollar take control, and drive this pair higher, as we see it targeting
the important 91.60 first, then 92.31 which is important as well. But in case we
broke the rising trend line at 90.12, the price will start to fall, confirming
the negative technical outlook which came after Fridayâ€™s price behaviour. This
fall is expected to target 89.37 & 88.72. But before breaking any of these 2
important limits, the technical outlook is mixed.
90.12: the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart.
â€¢ 89.37: Mar 2nd
â€¢ 88.72: Feb 26th low.
â€¢ 90.78: Mondayâ€™s
â€¢ 91.60: Oct 29th high.
â€¢ 92.31: Oct 27th
---Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for
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