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Thursday March 18, 2010 - 11:32:48 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 18/03/2010Forexpros Daily Analysis March 18,
Core Retail Sales
Canadian traders await the publication of the Core
The Core Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods
sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and
sizes in Canada, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer
spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace
indicator of the Canadian economy .
A higher than expected reading should be
taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading
should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD. Analysts predict a reading of
0.50%, up from the previous 0.40%.
The Euroâ€™s rally halted just above 1.38, and fell back
fast & strong. As we can see from the attached chart, the Euro fell towards
a very important support which is the lower trend line in the triangle that we
talked about in the past few days. And as we can see on the chart as well, the
price has already touched this line as well. Holding above, or breaking this
line is the single thing that will determine the direction of the day. Thus
1.3665 is the most important support, if the Euro continues its fall and breaks
it, huge implication for the short & medium term will arise! The most
important of which is that the chances to drop to a new bottom in this cycle,
below the 9-month low 1.3434 will be huge. As for the short term, if 1.3665 is
broken, we will see the price fall to 1.3550, and may be towards 1.3442 as well.
But if the price holds above 1.3665, it will rise to challenge the resistance
1.3710. And if this level is broken, we expect a strong jump towards yesterdayâ€™s
high 1.3816, and then it will try to reach 1.39.
1.3665: the rising trend line from 1.3434, and the lower line in the triangle
â€˘ 1.3550: March 4th low.
â€˘ 1.3442: Feb 19th
â€˘ 1.3710: the falling trend line from
yesterdayâ€™s high on intraday charts.
â€˘ 1.3816: yesterdayâ€™s high.
Feb 4th high.
It seems as if the
Dollar-Yen is trapped! And that it is stuck between the two limits we talked
about in yesterdayâ€™s report, since we have not seen a break of either of them,
as the price continued to trade marginally. Yesterday, we adjusted the lines
that frame the current area, to make the upper limit at Mondayâ€™s top 90.78,
which is very close to last Wednesdayâ€™s top 90.80. The lower limit is provided
by the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart, which has been tested
several times so far. We will adopt the support just below this line at 90.04 as
short term support In case we broke the resistance 90.78 we will see the Dollar
take control, and drive this pair higher, as we see it targeting the important
91.60 first, then 92.31 which is important as well. But in case we broke the
rising trend line at 90.04, the price will start to fall, confirming the
negative technical outlook which came after Fridayâ€™s price behaviour. This fall
is expected to target 89.37 & 88.53. But before breaking any of these 2
important limits, the technical outlook will be
â€˘ 90.04: important support just below the
rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly chart.
â€˘ 89.37: Mar 2nd low
88.53: Feb 4th low.
â€˘ 90.78: Mondayâ€™s high.
91.60: Oct 29th high.
â€˘ 92.31: Oct 27th high.
---Forex trading analysis by
Munther Marji for
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
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Fri 27 Oct
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