The U.S. Dollar is trading better against most major
currencies with the exception of the Japanese Yen as investors removed risk
from the equation overnight. The Dollar was under pressure on Wednesday as
traders reacted to the previous dayâ€™s FOMC statement. In its statement the Fed
said that interest rates would remain low for a prolonged period. This gave
traders the green light to buy higher risk assets while selling the Dollar.
Late Wednesday news came out that the political party
representing German Chancellor Merkel said that a bailout was unlikely and that
may have to seek aid from the International Monetary Fund. This weakened the
Euro, forcing a lower close. This news has spilled over into the markets
overnight and is putting pressure on higher yielding assets while helping to
drive traders into the Dollar for safety.
The EUR USD is trading lower, but remains in an uptrend. The
key to sustaining the developing rally will be this marketâ€™s ability to attract
buyers in the retracement zone at 1.3628 to 1.3584.
The British Pound is under pressure overnight after a strong
rally on Wednesday. Yesterdayâ€™s rally was triggered by better than expected
U.K. Initial Claims and news that the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee
had voted unanimously at its last meeting to leave its quantitative easing
program unchanged. The GBP USD rallied into a retracement zone at 1.5297 to
1.5419. With the main trend down, this market is finding resistance inside this
zone. This could set up a break back to 1.5080 to 1.5010.
Trader demand for lower risk assets is helping to pressure
the USD JPY. A new swing top has been formed at 91.08. The new main range is
88.14 to 91.08 which means this market may correct back to 89.61 to 89.26.
Additional support comes in at an uptrending Gann angle at 89.52.
Despite the stronger demand for lower yielding assets, the
USD CAD remains under pressure. Traders believe the Bank of Canada is likely to
raise interest rates before the Fed, underpinning the Canadian Dollar. In
addition, stronger gold and especially crude oil has been helping to pressure
the Dollar/CAD. Although conditions may be oversold, downside momentum
continues to indicate that this market could test the July 15, 2008 bottom at
99.74 before finding support.
The USD CHF is trading higher because of the weaker Euro.
Another collapse in the Euro increases the likelihood of an intervention by the
Swiss National Bank. On Wednesday, this market found support after completing a
50% retracement of the 1.0130 to 1.0897 range. This price level was 1.0513. The
market stopped at 1.0506. Although a closing price reversal top was not formed
on Wednesday, the chart pattern is still suggesting a possible short-covering
rally back to 1.0701 to 1.0750.
Lower demand for higher yielding currencies is helping
to weaken the AUD USD and NZD USD. So far the Aussie is trading lower but
inside of last nightâ€™s range. If selling pressure prevails then look for a
break back to at least .9100. The New Zealand Dollar is trading higher but
inside of a potential resistance zone at .7124 to .7199. Profit-taking could
start anytime if sentiment shifts toward risk aversion. The direction of U.S. equity
markets should control the direction of these two higher yielding assets.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
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