Stocks Likely to React to Slew of Economic Reports
stock indices are trading flat overnight. Traders have largely ignored the
weakness in the Euro over Greece
concerns. This may mean that todayâ€™s menu of U.S. economic reports will have a
bigger influence on stock prices.
The first report is Weekly Initial Claims. Traders will want
to see improvements in the U.S.
job situation in order to get a gauge of the developing U.S. recovery.
The Consumer Price Index, due out at 7:30am CT, will give traders a clue about U.S.
inflation. Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed will give traders
information about the robustness of the recovery.
With cheap money expected to be around for an extended
period of time, continue to look for the stock market to rise. A strong rally
in the Dollar however, is likely to put pressure on equity prices due to
June Treasury Bonds have finally broken out above the recent
double-tops at 118â€™02. The charts indicate the next upside target is 118â€™17.
Traders are reacting to the recent FOMC policy statement and to the possibility
of weaker stock markets.
April Gold is trading higher despite the stronger Dollar.
This could be trader reaction to a possible flare-up of financial problems in Greece. At this
time the charts indicate this market is caught in a short-term range between
$1145.80 and $1097.30. A trade through $1097.30 will turn the main trend to
down. A rally through $1145.80 is likely to trigger an acceleration to the
June Crude Oil is trading lower but still within striking
distance of the recent main top at 83.80. A breakout above this level sets up a
possibility of a test of the high for the year at 85.95. Fundamentally, OPEC
left production unchanged and inventories were up. Both events had virtually no
effect on crude oil. This indicates that risk sentiment and the desire for
higher risk assets are having a bigger influence on crude oil.
The U.S. Dollar is trading better against most major
currencies with the exception of the Japanese Yen as investors removed risk
from the equation overnight. The Dollar was under pressure on Wednesday as
traders reacted to the previous dayâ€™s FOMC statement. In its statement the Fed
said that interest rates would remain low for a prolonged period. This gave traders
the green light to buy higher risk assets while selling the Dollar.
Late Wednesday news came out that the political party
representing German Chancellor Merkel said that a bailout was unlikely and that
may have to seek aid from the International Monetary Fund. This weakened the
Euro, forcing a lower close. This news has spilled over into the markets
overnight and is putting pressure on higher yielding assets while helping to
drive traders into the Dollar for safety.
The March Euro is trading lower, but remains in an uptrend.
The key to sustaining the developing rally will be this marketâ€™s ability to
attract buyers in the retracement zone at 1.3628 to 1.3584.
The March British Pound is under pressure overnight after a
strong rally on Wednesday. Yesterdayâ€™s rally was triggered by better than
expected U.K. Initial Claims and news that the Bank of England Monetary Policy
Committee had voted unanimously at its last meeting to leave its quantitative
easing program unchanged. The Pound rallied into a retracement zone at 1.5297
to 1.5419. With the main trend down, this market is finding resistance inside
this zone. This could set up a break back to 1.5080 to 1.5010.
Trader demand for lower risk assets is helping to support
the March Japanese Yen. A new swing top has been formed at 91.08. The new main
range is 88.14 to 91.08 which means this market may correct back to 89.61 to
89.26. Additional support comes in at an uptrending Gann angle at 89.52.
Despite the stronger demand for lower yielding assets, the
March Canadian Dollar remains strong. Traders believe the Bank of Canada is
likely to raise interest rates before the Fed, underpinning the Canadian
Dollar. In addition, stronger gold and especially crude oil has been helping to
support the Loonie. Although conditions may be overbought, upside momentum
continues to indicate that this market could test the July 15, 2008 top at
1.0019 before finding resistance.
The March Swiss Franc is trading lower because of the
weaker Euro. Another collapse in the Euro increases the likelihood of an
intervention by the Swiss National Bank. On Wednesday, this market found
resistance after completing a 50% retracement of the .9884 to .9185 range. This
price level was .9526. The market stopped at .9525. Although a closing price
reversal top was not formed on Wednesday, the chart pattern is still suggesting
a possible short-covering rally back to .9355 to .9315.
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