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Thursday March 18, 2010 - 15:37:45 GMT
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The Simple Truth – Greece in the Spotlight, Again!

The Simple Truth is that there are some who still call the Euro an experiment rather than a currency. These skeptics have been forced into the background since its launch but the Greek situation and the strains put on the Euro as a result have brought them out of hibernation. When the Euro was first launched skeptics said it would function fine during times of economic prosperity but its weak spot would be exposed once a crisis occurred as monetary union without political union would make it difficult to deal with such situations. This contention is clearly being put to a test and while a breakup of the Eurozone is still a very long shot, an exit from the common currency by a weak member, such as Greece, is being talked about, something that was not even considered a risk just a short while ago.

 

In any case, a battle between Germany and Greece is being played out in the press. The following was posted by a member on GVI Forex and is an excellent description of the current battle:

 

Germany vs. Greece:

 

From those that fly in those circles the talk is that tensions are rising betteen Greece and the Germans. Greece mainly wants lower borrowing costs now that they feel they've taken appropriate steps. They're kind of using the going to the IMF as a threat to somehow get them. Greeks are trying to play the martyr to some degree especially with respect to the rollovers coming up. Meanwhile Germany is basically being German. EU Summit is March 25 so expect battle to continue to be played out in the headlines leading up then. From one guy in the loop "we fully expect to be tested by the markets".

 

You might ask. “How does a trader capitalize on this political game of chicken?  The Simple Truth is we are living in a market of “headline roulette.” What I mean by this is the markets seem to react to the latest headline, which often has an exaggerated impact. I must admit I am one who has had to adjust my trading strategies as in the old days I would take a stand and fade news related reactions I felt were illogical. I no longer stand in front of the bullet train as news reactions often move faster and farther than seem warranted by the headline, preferring to be patient to pick my spot rather than jumping in too soon. In any case, there will more than enough of these to watch ahead of the March 25 EU Summit. How the market reacts to such headlines will tell you more about the risk than the news itself.  The other indicator to watch is the CDS (Credit Default Swaps) for Greece, which is used as a measure of current anxiety. The wider the CDS the more concern over Greek risk and vice versa. Barring a surprise and softening of positions, the Greek cloud should, at a minimum, place a limit on the EUR/USD upside as thoughts of a return to 1.40 are put on the backburner for now.

 

Taking a technical look, the EUR/USD has bought itself some breathing room by moving off its 1.3435 low as only below it would revive the downtrend. On the upside, the failure this week to establish the pivotal big figure 1.38 (high 1.3817) has cooled the move. Taking a forex trading big figure approach, only a move outside of 1.35-1.38 would put key levels (1.3425 and 1.3817) at risk. 

 

This is The Simple Truth.

 

Jay Meisler

 

Jay Meisler has been trading the forex market for more than 30 years, as an interbank dealer, fund manager and independent trader. He is a co-founder of   Global-View.com the leading forex discussion site and home of the original forex forum. Global-View is a place where traders come for forex trading ideas, latest rumors, flows and breaking news.

 

 

 

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