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Friday March 19, 2010 - 14:25:10 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Hodgepodge

Key News
The global economy should move toward a multi-currency reserve system from one dependent solely on the dollar and there should be greater use of the IMF and its unit of account, the Special Drawing Right, a think-tank study proposed on Friday.  This decade will certainly be one of transition. We do not expect a big bang, but a long,gradual process of incremental change and adjustment," the authors said, adding that
dialogue between the developed and emerging economic powers was essential to revamp the system. "There is an argument for moving towards a multicurrency reserve system inline with the multipolar world, as well as expanding the use of a supranational currency such as the Special Drawing Right." The SDR's value is based on a basket of four key world currencies, currently the euro, yen, sterling and dollar. (Reuters)
RECENT renewed American calls for China to revalue its currency have so far fallen on deaf ears. China has rejected accusations that America's huge trade deficit with it is caused largely by an artificially weak yuan, which has been pegged to the dollar since July 2008. Economists point out that an appreciation of the yen did little to help reduce America's trade deficit with Japan in the 1980s. But the yuan is unquestionably undervalued. Our Big Mac index, based on the theory of purchasing-power parity, in which exchange rates should equalise the price of a basket of goods across countries, suggests that the yuan is 49% below its fair-value benchmark with the dollar. (Economist)
 
Chris Lori, CTA - FX Workshop     Charlotte, NC April 16-18 
 
Chris Lori, CTA and Institutional FX Fund Manager, is a leading foreign exchange professional. He is the only institutional insider and Fund Manager who also shares his methods and strategies with other professionals and private traders. Chris will be making his only US appearance in 2010 at his Charlotte, NC workshop. 
 
FX Workshop Includes: 
2.5 Days Live Workshop with Chris Lori, CTA and Fund Manager, 300 page resource manual  Online access to Chris' "Complete FX Course" for Workshop preparation and follow up ($399 value) Online access to "Inside the Banks" - Course on Fundamentals and Interest Rate Spreads ($199 value) 2 Months access to hundreds of training videos and market reviews in Chris Lori's "Pro Traders Club" ($318 value)  $900 in Bonuses!! 
 
"This workshop will completely change your view on how to trade in the foreign exchange market!" Chris Lori 
 
For detailed information about the workshop and to register to attend this workshop
Register here
 
Workshop Details 
Charlotte, NC Hilton Executive Park April 16-18
 
Quotable 
 
Come sit beneath the tariff walls
Among the scuttling unemployed,
The rodent pack; sing madrigals
Of Demos and the Cyprian maid
Bewildered by the golden grain,
While ships with peril in their hulls,
Deploying on the lines of trade, 
Transport the future of gangrene.
 
 The Economist’s Song, Stanly Kunitz [The Collected Poems]
 
FX Trading – Hodgepodge
 
US vs. German Yield Spreads – Tracking on the recent dollar index rally…
 
This from the Financial Times this morning:
 
Tremble: Brussels’ bureaucrats have sharpened their pencils. The European Commission wants several countries to explain how they will cut their budget deficits (so does everyone else). Eurozone capitals, meanwhile, argue over whether to bail-out Greece or bring in the International Monetary Fund. Markets are drawing their own conclusions. The combination of the eurozone’s fixed exchange rate, gaping deficits and skittish capital markets looks like the makings of an old-fashioned emerging markets debt crisis. That being so, it makes sense to look at a classic metric of debt vulnerability: rollover risk. 
 
This measures how much and how often borrowers need to refinance maturing debt in the capital markets. Shorter average debt durations mean more frequent visits. Worryingly, EU countries have almost doubled their amount of short- term debt since 2007, according to Standard & Poor’s, to about 11 per cent of the total outstanding. Clearly, it can make tactical sense to borrow at near-zero interest rates. But rolling over such debts, worth more than €800bn this year, also increases the chances of a blow-up. 
 
No wonder everyone is hiding in German bonds.  This rush to a European safe haven has pushed yields on the 10-year German bunds lower; it has resulted in a significant widening of the spread in favor of US 10-year Treasury notes.  
 
In the charts on the next page we compare this spread to the US dollar index chart.  Notice as the US-German spread started widening in late November/early December 2009, it coincided nicely with the rally in the US dollar index? [Chart not available in text format.]
 
Is it still all one market?
 
The correlations among the various asset classes continue to be tight, though we are seeing some changes.  Today with quadruple witching upon us, we could find out if past correlations are still in play.  
 
Below is a chart comparing the S&P 500 index (red), Australian $-US dollar (black), and crude oil (green at the bottom): [Chart not available in text format.]

Stay tuned.  
 
Have a great weekend.
 
Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital
www.blackswantrading.com
   
Thorough Analysis, Clear Direction, Fat Profits!
The last down-leg of EURUSD was kind to our members – they were able to reel in roughly 620 pips profit on our last short position targeting euro weakness; that’s a nice profit, I don’t care who you are. 
 
Jack and JR have been focused tightly on this pair as it’s chopped slightly higher over recent weeks. And as soon as they deem this correction/consolidation phase as being over, they plan to get our members back on this train and capitalize as EURUSD moves towards their next target ... and then eventually to par versus the US dollar. 
 
Their thorough global analysis, plus specific trading instructions, offers you a well-paced initiation into currency trading. Be you a newbie, a seasoned currency investor, or whatever else, we’re with you every step of the way, recommending new trades, alerting you to developing opportunities, helping you build an analytical foundation from which you can begin to make currency market decisions all on your own.
 
You can read more about PositionTrader FX ... or visit our homepage to sign up immediately. 
 
Thank you. 
 
All the best, 
 
David Newman 
Director of Sales and Marketing 
Black Swan Capital 
dnewman@blackswantrading.com  
Phone: 866-846-2672 

 

Forex Trading News

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
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17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
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