The U.S. Dollar Index finished the week near its high after
sharp breaks in the British Pound and Euro drove it sharply higher on Friday.
The close above a retracement zone by the Dollar puts it in a position to challenge
the high for the year at 81.70. It was a volatile week for the Dollar. The
first half of the week saw the Dollar receiving selling pressure because of the
prospect of lower interest rates for a prolonged period. The Dollar posted a
strong gain during the second half of the week as renewed risk aversion
sentiment encouraged traders to dump higher yielding currencies.
The British Pound was under pressure on Friday as traders took
defensive positions out of fear of a double-dip recession in the U.K. Earlier
in the week, the GBP USD ran into a resistance zone at 1.5297 to 1.5419. The
trend remained down despite the spike higher and selling resumed following a
test of this zone. On Friday this market tested the retracement zone formed by
the 1.4780 to 1.5381 swing. This zone is 1.5080 to 1.5010. If a secondary
higher bottom is going to form, it will do so in this zone. Otherwise a break
under 1.5010 will put his market in a weak position.
The EUR USD turned the main trend down on the daily chart
following a break through the recent swing bottom at 1.3530. In addition, a
retracement zone at 1.3628 to 1.3584 was violated. Downside momentum is
building which could take this market back down to the low for the year at
1.3440. Short interest in the commitment of traders report is still large which
is contributing to the pressure. Without a Greek/European Union bailout package
in place, the fundamentals remain bearish.
Lower equity prices helped to pressure the USD JPY early in
the session before short-covering ahead of the three-day holiday in Japan turned
the Dollar/Yen higher. The selling started when this pair couldnâ€™t penetrate a
.618 level at 90.61 and a downtrending Gann angle at 90.67. This price cluster
proved to be solid resistance. Watch for volatility on Sunday and Monday while
Japanese traders take a break.
The USD CAD posted a daily closing price reversal bottom
indicating the possible start of a short-covering rally. Fridayâ€™s trading
action was driven by â€śsell the rumor, buy the factâ€ť as traders reacted as if
this report was already factored into the market. Early during the trading
session a report came out, which showed that Canadian inflation was higher than
estimated. This triggered a sell-off in the Dollar/CAD. Oversold conditions
fueled profit-taking on the break which turned this market higher. The key area
to regain is 1.0205. If the Dollar/CAD closes over this price then watch for
the start of a strong short-covering rally.
The USD CHF finished the day and the week higher. The drop
in the Euro fueled the strength on the thought that the Swiss National Bank
would have to intervene. Gains were limited on talk that the SNB would not be
able to keep interest rates at low levels for much longer. After reaching a
major 50% price at 1.0513 and holding, the Dollar/Swiss is now in a position to
retrace the recent break to 1.0701 to 1.0748.
Both the AUD USD and NZD USD finished the week higher on the
thought their central banks would hike rates before the Fed. The Reserve Bank
has already been raising rates. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to do this a
little after June. Traders were buying these two currencies to take advantage
of the interest rate differential. The weakness late in the week for the Aussie
and Kiwi are indications that traders are a little concerned about risk. Look
for these traders to pare down positions a little more next week if the Greek
financial crisis flares up or if U.S. equity markets fall hard.
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