Wednesday March 9, 2005 - 09:49:58 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 9/3/2005
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil closed around $54.65 yesterday, giving another roung of gains to the black gold’s price, but keep an eye to some indicators showing weakness. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed around 10.915, slightly unchanged with respect to yesterday’s close.
Forex Technicals at a glance
Euro/Usd: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3375 level. Finally, what we were afraid of happening turned into reality, with the single european currency breaking above the last fibo retracement level, thus creating a renewed bullish trendline for the pair. We find today the dynamic support of the current bullish move around 1.32 and the dynamic resistance level at 1.3550, with price action well in the middle of that range. Crude Oil price is the perfect excuse to justify this move, but anyway we have to stick to the technicals and trade in this new scenario. Any fresh longs jumping into the train should bear in mind 1.33 as an interim support for the move.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2683. We have the confirmation of a bullish cross by the moving averages.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Positive – no signal. Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.93 level. Following its european fellow currencies, the british pound moved to the upside in yesterady’s session, but less aggressively than them. However, it confirms that it is in a bullish uptrend line, supported by 1.92 as today’s dynamic support and finding strong resistance around the 1.94/9450 area. Those are key levels to watch for now.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8528. We have the confirmation of the 20-day crossing the 50-day on the upside for some days now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Positive (signaled long feb.11, 2005). Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral-Positive.
Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.16 level. The swiss franc is the only currency out of the three europeans that keeps a puzzling view, which can’t be ignored, just in case it alerts of future surprises in price action. It is performing rather differently from how the EUR is and it is managing to hold above the 1.1575 support for now. Does that mean something? Well I think it does. It just keeps an alert that the USD is not done yet and that all currencies involving the greenback have possible surprises in the price action to come. So let’s not forget the USD is not done yet.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2127. We have a bearish cross confirmation of the 20-50 day moving averages.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Negative (no signal). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Positive.
Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6935 level. Following EUR strength across the board, the pair is just shy of the 50-day moving average, which, if cleared, combined with a clear of the 0.6950 resistance, will reinstate a bullish trendline for the pair, wchihc could well be supported by the moving averages right from the start. Longs from the Indicators Watch level 1 look good and they can be protected already, in search of the final breaks on the upside which could drive the pair to the strong 0.7030 resistance.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6841 today. Pair is above the 20 moving average and just shy below the 50-day simple moving average.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR Positive – signaled long february,25-. Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
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