European Market Update: Markets pause as RBI rate hike effect is analyzed and implications of the historic US healthcare House vote
Monday, March 22, 2010
European Market Update: Markets pause as RBI rate hike effect is analyzed and implications of the historic US healthcare House vote
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (TT) Taiwan Feb Unemployment: .5.7% v 5.7%e - (SZ) Swiss Feb M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.1% v 6.1% prior - (AS) Jan Producer Price Index M/M: -0.2% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.0% prior - (DE) Denmark Mar Consumer Confidence:-1.0 v 2.0e - (HK) Hong Kong FEB CPI Composite Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.1%e - (HK) Hong Kong Q4 Balance of Payments (BOP): $230.6 v $106.6B prior; Current Account: $36.6B v $23.5B prior - (IC) Iceland Feb Wage Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.1% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European markets are responding to a global pull back in equities. Friday's surprise repo rate action from the Reserve Bank of India continues to hover over sentiment, adding to the downward rotation. Weekend macro news has seen a flow of political topics with election results in France, Iraq, and Russia proving troubling to the incumbent party, while in the US, the House of Reps has crossed a further hurdle to a tormenting/trying result in Health Care Reform. News flows from Asia included the opening of trial proceedings against 4 Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] employees in China and news that Japanese steel firms have agreed to tentative iron ore pricing contracts based on quarterly spot price action. Responding to this flow, minerals, miners and steel names have been on the back foot while drug manufacturers and medical service names have traded higher. Kabel Deutschland [KDA.GE] kicked off a busy two-week IPO schedule in Frankfurt, shares priced at â‚¬22.00/share (in the lower end of its range), but opened at â‚¬22.50; Cable & Wireless [CW.UK] launched the spinoff of Cable & Wireless Communications [CWW.UK] in London. M&A speculation and deals continued over the weekend with Shell [RDSA.UK] and Petro China [PTR] raising its offer and closing an agreement with Australian listed Arrow [AOE.AU]. Into 6:00EST, equities have been trending lower with the FTSE100 leading the rotation lower on light turnover levels.
- Individual equities: Wolseley [WOS.UK]: Reports H1 pre-tax loss Â£207M, op profit Â£167M v Â£251M y/y, Rev Â£6.33B v Â£6.3Be. || Kabel Deutschalnd [KD8.GE]: 35.4M shares for IPO placed at â‚¬22/shr; to begin listing on March 22. || Henkel [HEN.GE]: CFO: Targeting debt reduction of â‚¬300M in FY10 -Boersen Zeitung. ||
- Speakers: OECD's Bucher made a general comment that it would be a challenge to manage fiscal deficits in 2011. He noted that it was China's decision whether to revalue the Yuan currency and its long term growth *** China PBoC stated that new problems and uncertainties were constantly emerging in the financial sector in the wake of the global credit crunch. It noted that it would step up efforts to prevent systemic risks and strive for a prudent regulatory framework and keep a close eye on global financial and economic changes***German Ministry of Finance (MOF) commented that the German economy started the new year cautiously. It noted that Feb tax revenues down 2.8% y/y while Federal tax receipts were down 10.6% y/y. It noted that the German economic recovery remained prone to setbacks. It noted that exports were on upward trend and that industrial output would strengthen over the course of 2010. It also commented that the job market remained robust *** Poland Central Banker Zielinska-Glebowcka reiterated the recent consensus among her peers that there was no reason to raise interest rates at this time and believed that Polish Rate panel was evenly split with regards to the timing of a rate hike. She saw the rate panel maintaining neutral bias to the monetary policy meeting in March. The Zloty currency appreciation might be temporary but did not expect it to depreciate *** China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) stated that it saw growing net currency inflows and reiterated the view to strengthen illegal Forex supervision *** HKMA noted in its half-year monetary and Stability report that the Hong Kong economy faced risk from rising asset prices. The report noted that HK dollar fund flows direction would likely to be uncertain this year with flows into and out of the currency are likely to be dominated by equity-related flows *** Italy Foreign Min Frattini: Compromise is necessary over the Greece situation before Thursday EU summit ***SNB's Quarterly Update stated that the economic recovery continued in Q1 but it remained cautious over the next 6months on it outlook as the recovery remained fragile. ***Philippines Central Bank Gov Tetangco commented that he saw upside risks to inflation but was unlikely to raise interest rates during first half of this year . He added that the central bank would not likely make aggressive rate hikes if it does act later this year. Guided 2010 inflation to 4.4% and saw it peaking at 5.1% by mid-2010 period***World Steel Association: Feb global steel output at 108M tons v 109M tons m/m (+24.2% y/y)
- Currencies: The week began on a subdued note as the major pairs maintained familiar ranges. European leaders sent out conflicting signals at the weekend over aid to Greece ahead of Thursday EU Summit which sent the Euro initially softer against the majors. EUR/USD tested the 1.3500 level before lulling into a quiet 30 pip range for most of the morning. The risk appetite sentiment also subdued in the wake of the RBI inter-meeting rate hike on Friday and the historic passage of the US healthcare bill in the house. The GBP briefly tested above 1.50 but continues to remain vulnerable ahead of the budget release set for Wednesday.
- Geo/political: The United States House of Representatives passed an amended version of the Senate Health Care Bill in a 220-211, purely party line vote. The Senate will vote on amended efforts (possibly by Tuesday) before sending the bill to Pres Obama for signing. *** France has held its second round regional election with expected results: Socialist coalition 54%, UMP 35%. The vote will be the last nationwide test before Sarkozy is up for re-election in 2012. Socialists won majorities in 21 of 22 regional French assemblies. Pundits have looked on the vote as referendum on the Sarkozy presidency and point to the extraordinarily low turnout as a reflection of popular discontent with all parties. *** Iraq PM Nuri Maliki has endorsed calls for voter recount in parliamentary elections. Voter totals with 95% of ballot counted, put Maliki's main challenger, Mr Allawi's led Iaqiya Alliance holding a small 11K vote lead (from total of approx 12M). In a regional break down, Maliki is seen taking 7 of 18 territories, 5 for Allawi's. The election commission has set Friday as a new final release date, after reviewing the largest concerns and fraud allegations. ||
***Notes/Observations: -The 16-nation euro zone is divided over whether and how best to provide financial help to Greece - US House passes Health care reform - Dubai World asks for 8 more years to pay back $22B - Markets assess impact of India's inter-meeting rate hike from Fridaythe question is who is next???
***Looking Ahead: - 8:00 Fed's Bullard on CNBC - 8:30 (US) Feb Chicago Fed National Activity Index: No est v 0.02 prior - 9:00 (PD) Poland Feb Core Inflation M/M: 0.1%e v Jan; Y/Y: 2.2% v Jan - 9:30 (BR) Brazil Feb Current Account: No est v -$3.8B prior - 11:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Retail Sales: 2.5%e v 1.6% prior - 11:00 (EU) Euro Zone Mar Advanced Consumer Confidence: -17e v -17 prior -11:30 (EU) ECB's Trichet - 11:30 (UK) BOE Gov King - 12:45 (EU) ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo in Washington DC - 15:45 (US) Fed's Lochhart on economic outlook - 16:30 (US) US Tsy Sec Geithner
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.