The U.S. Dollar is trading firm overnight against all major
currencies. Without any major economic reports today, the focus will be on
demand for higher yielding assets and the Greek financial situation.
The Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly raised borrowing
costs on March 19th. This helped support the Dollar as investors boosted demand
for safe investments. Traders fear that the hike in India
means that China
will soon do the same. This news should pressure demand for higher yielding
assets, fueling a rise in the Dollar. The early action suggests the markets are
a little risk negative this morning which should benefit the Dollar.
Traders are expected to continue to pressure the Euro on
expectations the European Union will fail to agree on an aid package for Greece. Pressure
is on the British Pound after a report said the U.K. recovery will be â€śslow and
The passing of the biggest health system overhaul in 40
years could pressure U.S.
stock markets today. Overnight the stock indices are trading lower, but so far
there has been little reaction by the Forex markets to the news. This could
change once U.S.
equity markets open. There still appears to be some debate as to how much if
anything this new bill will increase the U.S. deficit. Lower equity markets
will send money into the lower yielding U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen.
Euro traders are bracing for a down day ahead of the start
of this weekâ€™s EU summit. Traders are being told by German Chancellor Angela
Merkel that they shouldnâ€™t expect any agreement to be reached on a financial
aid package for Greece.
doesnâ€™t get any aid, then look for it to turn to the International Monetary
Fund for help. This isnâ€™t sitting well with market because it makes Europe
appear weak and makes it look as if Europe
cannot afford to help its own members.
The GBP USD is expected to face another round of selling
pressure on the heels of the news that the Confederation of British Industry
sees a â€śbumpyâ€ť road ahead for the U.K. economy. The report sees a
weaker economy because it expects to see consumers save more and spend less. Traders
also feel that there are too many negatives to support the British Pound at
this time. These negative issues include political uncertainty and a possible
credit rating cut.
The weaker Euro is helping to drive up the USD CHF. Traders
fear that the Swiss National Bank will continue to intervene to protect its
currency and economy from the falling Euro. Gains may be limited because of the
threat of higher interest rates. Watch for a breakout over 1.0646 with 1.0701
the next upside target.
The USD JPY is trading better in limited action. Traders
appear to be taking a tentative approach to the market while waiting to see how
stock markets will fare in the face of the passage of the healthcare reform
bill. The charts indicate that a trade over 91.08 will turn the main trend up.
Bullish traders are being less aggressive before the opening of the U.S. markets.
Aggressive selling in the stock indices could lead to increased demand for the
lower yielding Japanese Yen.
The USD CAD is up after confirming last Fridayâ€™s closing
price reversal bottom at 1.0060. The market bottomed late last week after the
release of better than expected Canadian Inflation Data. The report suggests
that the Canadian economy is growing at a faster pace than previously thought,
thereby increasing the chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada before the
Fed. The steep decline in the Dollar/CAD has lead to oversold conditions which
is helping to fuel the developing short-covering rally.
Weaker higher yielding assets are helping to pressure the
AUD USD. Based on the range of .8577 to .9241, look for a possible retracement
to .8914 to .8834. The daily chart indicates that a break to .8914 could happen
by March 25th. This is likely to occur if equity markets sell off hard.
The NZD USD is down overnight. Lower demand for higher
yielding assets is helping to pressure the Kiwi. The charts indicate a move to
.6992 to .6948 is likely over the near-term.
Forex Trading News
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Mon 12 Mar 2018 A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction Tue 13 Mar 2018 A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey AA 12:30 US- CPI A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction Wed 14 Feb 2018 AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction Thu 15 Mar 2018 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI A 12:15 US- Industrial Production Fri 16 Mar 2018 A 10:00 EZ- final HICP A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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