stock markets are expected to open lower this morning after overnight pressure.
Stocks opened weaker in reaction to an interest rate hike in India. This is
fueling speculation that a rate hike by China will be next. Fear over Greek
financial issues flaring up again are pressuring the Euro which is raising risk
in the equity markets.
The passing of the healthcare reform bill overnight is not
sitting well with equity traders. Many traders feel the new law will increase
the government deficit. The June E-mini S&P 500 looks vulnerable to the
downside with 1122.75 a potential target.
June Treasury Bonds are trading lower ahead of the opening.
Trading has been tight and volume low overnight despite weaker equity markets
and a stronger Dollar. A substantial drop in equity markets could trigger a
flight to quality rally into the T-Bonds. A break under 117â€™23 could indicate
April Gold is under pressure due to weaker demand for higher
risk assets and the stronger Dollar. Downside momentum indicates further
weakness is likely with a change in trend to down under the last swing bottom
June Crude Oil continues to weaken as traders dump higher
yielding assets. A break under 79.77 will turn the main trend down. The next
major downside target is 77.28. The weakening Euro is having a negative
influence on the energy markets and other higher risk commodities.
The U.S. Dollar is trading firm overnight against all major
currencies. Without any major economic reports today, the focus will be on
demand for higher yielding assets and the Greek financial situation.
The Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly raised borrowing
costs on March 19th. This helped support the Dollar as investors boosted demand
for safe investments. Traders fear that the hike in India
means that China
will soon do the same. This news should pressure demand for higher yielding
assets, fueling a rise in the Dollar. The early action suggests the markets are
a little risk negative this morning which should benefit the Dollar.
Traders are expected to continue to pressure the Euro on
expectations the European Union will fail to agree on an aid package for Greece.
Pressure is on the British Pound after a report said the U.K. recovery will be â€śslow and
The passing of the biggest health system overhaul in 40
years could pressure U.S.
stock markets today. Overnight the stock indices are trading lower, but so far
there has been little reaction by the Forex markets to the news. This could
change once U.S.
equity markets open. There still appears to be some debate as to how much if
anything this new bill will increase the U.S. deficit. Lower equity markets
will send money into the lower yielding U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen.
Euro traders are bracing for a down day ahead of the start
of this weekâ€™s EU summit. Traders are being told by German Chancellor Angela
Merkel that they shouldnâ€™t expect any agreement to be reached on a financial
aid package for Greece.
doesnâ€™t get any aid, then look for it to turn to the International Monetary
Fund for help. This isnâ€™t sitting well with market because it makes Europe
appear weak and makes it look as if Europe
cannot afford to help its own members.
The March British Pound is expected to face another round of
selling pressure on the heels of the news that the Confederation of British
Industry sees a â€śbumpyâ€ť road ahead for the U.K. economy. The report sees a
weaker economy because it expects to see consumers save more and spend less.
Traders also feel that there are too many negatives to support the British
Pound at this time. These negative issues include political uncertainty and a
possible credit rating cut.
The weaker Euro is helping to drive down the March Swiss
Franc. Traders fear that the Swiss National Bank will continue to intervene to
protect its currency and economy from the falling Euro. Losses may be limited
because of the threat of higher interest rates. Watch for a break under .9399
with .9355 the next downside target.
The March Japanese Yen is trading lower in limited action.
Traders appear to be taking a tentative approach to the market while waiting to
see how U.S.
stock markets will fare in the face of the passage of the healthcare reform
bill. The charts indicate that a trade under 1.0984 will turn the main trend
down. Bearish traders are being less aggressive before the opening of the U.S. markets.
Aggressive selling in the stock indices could lead to increased demand for the
lower yielding Japanese Yen.
The March Canadian Dollar is down after confirming last
Fridayâ€™s closing price reversal top at .9938. The market topped late last week
after the release of better than expected Canadian Inflation Data. The report
suggests that the Canadian economy is growing at a faster pace than previously
thought, thereby increasing the chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada
before the Fed. The steep rise in the Canadian Dollar has led to overbought
conditions, which is helping to fuel the developing profit-taking break.
Forex Trading News
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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