Tuesday March 23, 2010 - 03:38:36 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 23-Mar-2010 - 0336 GMT
The US Markets closed up yesterday. The Dow (10785.89) closed up 0.41% and the Nasdaq (2395.40) closed up 0.88%. The Dow may rise towards 11000-100 in the coming weeks if it continues to honour the trendline Support on the daily charts. To see the trendline Support on the Dow, click on the following link:
The Asian Equities are mixed today. The Nikkei (10797.51, down 0.25%) may rise towards 11000 in the coming days. The Shanghai (3070.224, down 0.14%) is consolidating between 2975 on the downside and 3100 on the upside before a breakout on the either side is visible. The HangSeng (21154.86) is up 1.06%. In India, the Sensex (17410.57) was down 0.95% and the Nifty (5205.20) was down 1.09% yesterday. The Sensex is finding it difficult to strongly break above the Resistance at 17500 and has been trading near it since 4 days now. We need to wait and watch if the immediate Resistance (at 17500) is broken, which may see a rally towards 17800-18000 in the coming sessions.
Crude (81.63) has bounced back from yesterday's low of 78.86. The stronger dollar which pulled down the price below 80 failed to retain the downside pressure as the stornger equities supported for the bounce back. A close below 80 was not seen since 03-Mar-10, although intraday break below 80 has been seen on few occasions which still holds the chances of revisiting the previous high of 83.95 (11-Jan-10).
Gold (1104.20) witnessed a break below the significant Support at 1100. However, it has bounced back from yesterday's low of 1092.10. The stronger dollar is continuing to keep the price pressured. As mentioned earlier a strong break below 1100 might increase the chances of another 50-100 dollar fall.
Some recovery for the non-Dollar currencies today, but not much, on some hopes of Greece settlement after Germany took a tough stance yesterday. The Euro (1.3550) has rallied a bit from yesterday's low near 1.3463, but may find Resistance at 1.36. The Pound (1.5080) had seen a low near 1.4932 yesterday, but seems to have found a good Support there. May rise towards 1.52. Dollar-Swiss (1.0585) has comd off a bit from yesterday's high near 1.0660 and should be ranged between 1.0550-0650 today.
Dollar-Yen (90.35) continues to trade sideways between 89.80-90.80 within an overall downtrend. Remember that Japan was closed yesterday. The Aussie (0.9165) too has recovered from yesterday's low near 0.9085.
The Asian currencies have also recovered a bit, but remain weak compared to Friday's levels. USD-SGD (1.3990) has come down from yesterday's high near 1.4049. See Support at 1.3965 today. Dollar-Won trades near 1134, down from levels near 1137 yesterday. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 45.58 yesterday and the NDFs had traded up to 45.73 yesterday but are quoting near 45.60/65 today. Onshore Spot has been trading within a 45.40-60 range for the past several days. It might see 45.80 in case of a rise past 45.60.
3M and 6M USD LIBOR was raised a little and was quoted at 0.28% and 0.44% respectively. The 2Y and 10Y yeilds were down 3 bps each to quote at 0.96% and 3.66% respectively.
08:30 GMT Feb UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 3.1%...Previous 3.5%
14:00 GMT Feb US Existing Home Sales
...Expected 5.01 Mln...Previous 5.05 Mln
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