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Tuesday March 23, 2010 - 12:18:01 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 23/03/2010

ForexPros Daily Analysis March 23, 2010


Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo Business Climate Index

European traders anticipate the publication of the German Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index. The index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.
The reading is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a future reading of 96.00.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.3501, only to stop in the middle of the way to the target 1.3422, at 1.3462 in specific. This is the fifth time that the EURUSD reaches a daily low in the same area, without being able to break it. In Addition to yesterday’s low, the Euro has bottomed in the neighborhood on: Feb 19th (low 1.3442), Feb 25th (low 1.3450), Mar 1st (low 1.3459) & Mar 2nd (low 1.3434). And after 3 weeks, we come back to the same area, as if we needed another bottom here to realize just how important this support area is. But, we were expecting to see a break of the wide and strong support area which concerned us for more than a month so far: 1.3434-1.3462. It is with no doubt that any attempts to reach 1.30 on the medium term will not have a good chance unless this support is broken. Short term analysis provides that the support is at 1.3502, and breaking it would give another chance to break the 1.34 areas. The targets for this break will be 1.3442 first, and then 1.3341. As for the resistance it is at 1.3566, and breaking it would mean we are already correcting the last drop from the 1.38 top, and the targets for this correction will be 1.3621 & 1.3696.

Support:
• 1.3502: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
• 1.3422: May 18th low.
• 1.3341: May 8th low.

Resistance:
• 1.3566: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro term.
• 1.3621: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
• 1.3696: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.

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USD/JPY

The Dollar-Yen broke the rising trend line from 89.61, and the support specified in yesterday’s report 90.33, dropped to 89.81, without being able to go lower than Thursday’s low 89.74. This morning the price came back to test the broken trend line (please refer to the attached chart). But we believe, even if the price came back over the broken line, the technical outlook will not turn positive, since we are still below 90.78. Last week, we adjusted the lines that frame the current area, to make the upper limit at Monday’s & Thursday’s top 90.78, which is very close to last Wednesday’s top 90.80, and close to Friday’s top 90.70. In case we break the magnetic resistance 90.78 we will see the Dollar take control, and drive this pair higher, as we see it targeting the important 91.60 first, then 92.31 which is important as well. But in case we break the nearby support 90.23, drifting away from 90.78 will actually start, and we will be on the way to target 89.37 & 88.53.

Support:
• 90.23: important intraday support.
• 89.37: Mar 2nd low
• 88.53: Feb 4th low.

Resistance:
• 90.78: Monday’s high.
• 91.60: Oct 29th high.
• 92.31: Oct 27th high.

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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.

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Disclaimer:

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
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15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
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12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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