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Tuesday March 23, 2010 - 12:18:01 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 23/03/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis March 23,
Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo Business
European traders anticipate the publication of the German
Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index. The index determines the
business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.
The reading is concluded
from survey of about 7,000 businesses. A higher than expected reading should be
taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading
should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a future
reading of 96.00.
broke the support specified in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.3501, only to stop in the
middle of the way to the target 1.3422, at 1.3462 in specific. This is the fifth
time that the EURUSD reaches a daily low in the same area, without being able to
break it. In Addition to yesterdayâ€™s low, the Euro has bottomed in the
neighborhood on: Feb 19th (low 1.3442), Feb 25th (low 1.3450), Mar 1st (low
1.3459) & Mar 2nd (low 1.3434). And after 3 weeks, we come back to the same
area, as if we needed another bottom here to realize just how important this
support area is. But, we were expecting to see a break of the wide and strong
support area which concerned us for more than a month so far: 1.3434-1.3462. It
is with no doubt that any attempts to reach 1.30 on the medium term will not
have a good chance unless this support is broken. Short term analysis provides
that the support is at 1.3502, and breaking it would give another chance to
break the 1.34 areas. The targets for this break will be 1.3442 first, and then
1.3341. As for the resistance it is at 1.3566, and breaking it would mean we are
already correcting the last drop from the 1.38 top, and the targets for this
correction will be 1.3621 & 1.3696.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€˘ 1.3422: May 18th low.
â€˘ 1.3341: May
â€˘ 1.3566: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro
â€˘ 1.3621: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
â€˘ 1.3696: Fibonacci
61.8% for the short term.
Dollar-Yen broke the rising trend line from 89.61, and the support specified in
yesterdayâ€™s report 90.33, dropped to 89.81, without being able to go lower than
Thursdayâ€™s low 89.74. This morning the price came back to test the broken trend
line (please refer to the attached chart). But we believe, even if the price
came back over the broken line, the technical outlook will not turn positive,
since we are still below 90.78. Last week, we adjusted the lines that frame the
current area, to make the upper limit at Mondayâ€™s & Thursdayâ€™s top 90.78,
which is very close to last Wednesdayâ€™s top 90.80, and close to Fridayâ€™s top
90.70. In case we break the magnetic resistance 90.78 we will see the Dollar
take control, and drive this pair higher, as we see it targeting the important
91.60 first, then 92.31 which is important as well. But in case we break the
nearby support 90.23, drifting away from 90.78 will actually start, and we will
be on the way to target 89.37 & 88.53.
important intraday support.
â€˘ 89.37: Mar 2nd low
â€˘ 88.53: Feb 4th
â€˘ 90.78: Mondayâ€™s high.
â€˘ 91.60: Oct 29th
â€˘ 92.31: Oct 27th high.
---Forex Trading Analysis written
by Munther Marji for
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