The U.S. Dollar is trading better against the major
currencies this morning. The Euro and the British Pound are the two weakest
currencies. The early assessment is traders will be looking to protect
themselves against risk which should benefit the lower yielding Dollar.
The EUR USD is under pressure as speculation continues to
grow that Greece Prime Minister Papadreou is likely to leave this weekâ€™s
European Union summit on March 25th and 26th without a financial aid deal. This
means heâ€™ll have to turn to the International Monetary Fund for aid if needed.
This is negative to the Euro because it makes Europe
appear as weak for allowing one of its members to go out of the EU to seek
European Central Bank President Trichet didnâ€™t help matters
much when he offered comments citing his belief that Greece should not be offered
low-interest financing. There is no question that Trichet wants stronger terms.
He backed his stance by saying, â€śThere shouldnâ€™t be any subsidy element, no
concessionary element.â€ťHis thoughts
were in line with German Chancellor Merkel who is pushing for similar austere
measures and sanctions against nations that threaten agreed upon deficit limits.
What is becoming clear is that battle lines are being drawn
between Greece and the
European Union and its beginning to look like Greece will have to turn to the IMF
for financial aid.
The GBP USD is the biggest loser overnight. Sellers are
pressuring the British Pound after a report showed that the U.K. inflation
rate dropped to 3.0% in February. Coupled with political uncertainty and the
threat of a credit rating cut, this weaker inflation report confirms a report
released on Monday which calls for a â€śbumpyâ€ť recovery.
The lower Euro is helping to strengthen the USD CHF.
Overnight, Swiss National Bank President Phillip Hildebrand said the SNB is
poised to act â€śdecisivelyâ€ť to counter any â€śexcessiveâ€ť gains by the currency. He
further added â€śFor Switzerland, we canâ€™t fully rule out deflation threats in
the case of renewed external shocksâ€ť. â€śAn excessive appreciation for the Franc
against the Euro would for example be such a shock.â€ť This comment suggests that
the SNB stands ready to continue to intervene on behalf of the Swiss Franc to
protect its currency and economy.
Demand for lower risk assets is also helping to pressure
commodity-linked currencies. This is weakening the AUD USD and NZD USD while
giving the USD CAD a boost.
The primary driver in the Forex markets today will be risk
aversion. This could mean lower stocks and commodities. The only major U.S.
economic report is the 9:00am CT Existing Home Sales Report. Home sales have
plunged since tax relief ended. A surprise in this report could move the U.S. equity
markets which will influence the direction of the Dollar.
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Mon 26 Feb 2018 A 15:00 US- New Homes Sales Tue 27 Feb 2018 A 08:55 DE- Jobless B 13:30 US- Durable Goods A 15:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence A 15:00 US- Pending Homes Sales AA 15:00 US- Powell House Testimony Wed 28 Feb 2018 A 10:00 EZ- flash HICP AA 13:30 US- GDP A 15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 1 Mar 2018 A All Day final Mfg PMIs A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 13:30 US- Core PCE Deflator AA 15:00 US- Powell Senate Testimony A 15:30 US- EIA Crude Fri 2 Mar 2018 AA 15:00 US- final Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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