Stocks could feel Pressure if Investors Look for Safety
equity markets are trading flat this morning but could see downside pressure if
investors decide to seek protection against a decline by demanding safety from
higher yielding assets. Yesterday the markets showed how resilient they were
when they rebounded from early pressure. Risk of a flare-up of financial
problems in Greece
could encourage investors to move money out of higher yielding stocks and
June Treasury Bonds are expected to open flat to slightly
better in light trading. Investors seem unwilling to take a position until they
see this weekâ€™s auction results. Investors fear that the higher return in the
equity markets will encourage traders to seek higher yields in T-Bonds, thereby
driving down prices. Furthermore, some traders feel that the war of words
between the U.S. Treasury and China
over currency valuation will lead to less demand from the Chinese.
The stronger Dollar is putting pressure on April Gold.
Yesterday the main trend turned to down on the daily chart, signaling weaker
markets to follow. Watch for choppy, two-sided trading while the Dollar tries
to establish a trend. A break through $1088.50 could trigger an acceleration to
Pressure on equities and commodities could lead to weakness
in June Crude Oil. Yesterdayâ€™s sharp rise in equities triggered a
short-covering rally in crude oil after this market changed the trend to down
after a break through 79.77.
The U.S. Dollar is trading better against the major
currencies this morning. The Euro and the British Pound are the two weakest
currencies. The early assessment is traders will be looking to protect
themselves against risk which should benefit the lower yielding Dollar.
The March Euro is under pressure as speculation continues to
grow that Greece Prime Minister Papadreou is likely to leave this weekâ€™s
European Union summit on March 25th and 26th without a financial aid deal. This
means heâ€™ll have to turn to the International Monetary Fund for aid if needed.
This is negative to the Euro because it makes Europe
appear as weak for allowing one of its members to go out of the EU to seek
European Central Bank President Trichet didnâ€™t help matters
much when he offered comments citing his belief that Greece should not be offered
low-interest financing. There is no question that Trichet wants stronger terms.
He backed his stance by saying, â€śThere shouldnâ€™t be any subsidy element, no
concessionary element.â€ťHis thoughts
were in line with German Chancellor Merkel who is pushing for similar austere
measures and sanctions against nations that threaten agreed upon deficit
What is becoming clear is that battle lines are being drawn
between Greece and the
European Union and its beginning to look like Greece will have to turn to the IMF
for financial aid.
The March British Pound is the biggest loser overnight.
Sellers are pressuring the British Pound after a report showed that the U.K.
inflation rate dropped to 3.0% in February. Coupled with political uncertainty
and the threat of a credit rating cut, this weaker inflation report confirms a
report released on Monday which calls for a â€śbumpyâ€ť recovery.
The lower Euro is helping to weaken the March Swiss Franc.
Overnight, Swiss National Bank President Phillip Hildebrand said the SNB is
poised to act â€śdecisivelyâ€ť to counter any â€śexcessiveâ€ť gains by the currency. He
further added â€śFor Switzerland, we canâ€™t fully rule out deflation threats in
the case of renewed external shocksâ€ť. â€śAn excessive appreciation for the Franc
against the Euro would for example be such a shock.â€ť This comment suggests that
the SNB stands ready to continue to intervene on behalf of the Swiss Franc to
protect its currency and economy.
Demand for lower risk assets is also helping to pressure
commodity-linked currencies. This is weakening the March Australian, New Zealand and
The primary driver in the Forex markets today will be risk
aversion. This could mean lower stocks and commodities. The only major U.S.
economic report is the 9:00am CT Existing Home Sales Report. Home sales have
plunged since tax relief ended. A surprise in this report could move the U.S.
equity markets which will influence the direction of the Dollar.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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