The EUR USD finished lower as speculation continued to grow
would have to seek financial aid from the International Monetary Fund. The good
news is France and Germany
is behind such an agreement, thereby increasing the chances that the process of
obtaining a loan may be expedited. In addition, once Greece
obtains a viable financial agreement with the IMF, more European Union nations
are likely to throw their financial support behind Greece.
This news came late in the trading session and allowed the
Euro to finish off its low on some light short-covering. At the start of
todayâ€™s session, it was apparent that Greece Prime Minister Papadreou would
leave this weekâ€™s European Union summit on March 25th and 26th without a
financial aid deal. This meant that Greece would have to turn to the
International Monetary Fund for aid if needed. This was being perceived negative
to the Euro because it makes Europe appear
weak for allowing one of its members to go out of the EU to seek financial
help. Now that France and Germany are
behind the move to get the IMFâ€™s backing, it appears to be a cooperative
agreement rather than a sporadic move.
Although the market reacted with a short-covering rally on
Tuesday, a financial aid agreement will be no guarantee of instant success for
the Euro. Some investors do feel, however, that there are too many shorts in
open positions to risk adding to positions at current price levels. This could
mean a quick, sharp short-covering rally may take place if an amicable
agreement is reached.
The Euro attempted to test the old main bottom at 1.3440,
but stopped after it ran out of selling pressure at 1.3475. Traders seem a
little reluctant to press the short-side at current levels out of fear of a possible
The GBP USD lost ground on Tuesday. Sellers pressured the
British Pound after a report showed that the U.K. inflation rate dropped to 3.0%
in February. Coupled with political uncertainty and the threat of a credit
rating cut, this weaker than expected inflation report confirmed a report
released on Monday which calls for a â€śbumpyâ€ť recovery. Technically, this market
is not looking too bad. Traders have been trying for three days to establish a
secondary higher bottom inside of a retracement zone at 1.5080 to 1.5010.
Surprising the weaker Euro had no effect on the USD CHF
which finished lower. Todayâ€™s action was all about the Swiss central bank.
Overnight, Swiss National Bank President Phillip Hildebrand said the SNB is
poised to act â€śdecisivelyâ€ť to counter any â€śexcessiveâ€ť gains by the currency. He
further added â€śFor Switzerland, we canâ€™t fully rule out deflation threats in
the case of renewed external shocksâ€ť. â€śAn excessive appreciation for the Franc
against the Euro would for example be such a shock.â€ť
This comment suggests that the SNB stands ready to continue
to intervene on behalf of the Swiss Franc to protect its currency and economy.
Todayâ€™s trading action in the USD CHF could be a sign that a Greek/IMF
agreement is imminent.
Commodity-linked currencies turned around after earlier
weakness when U.S.
stock indices reached new highs for the year. This helped support the AUD USD
and NZD USD while pressuring the USD CAD. Late in the session demand for higher
risk assets picked up on the news that the France
and Germany are getting
behind a potential financial aid agreement between the IMF and Greece.
The chart pattern suggests that volatility is about to
return to the USD JPY. For several weeks, this currency pair has been trading
inside of a huge triangle position and now seems to be ready to break out. With
the stock market continuing to press highs, it seems likely the USD JPY will
test the high end of the triangle first. The chart formation suggests a
potential breakout above 90.40. This could trigger a further rally to 90.95 and
a change in trend to up over 91.08.
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