equity markets overcame a flat trading session to surge to the upside into the
close. Tuesdayâ€™s strength came as a bit of a surprise because of the weakness
in the higher risk currencies. Investors turned more optimistic about holding
onto higher risk assets on the news that France
and Germany may be behind an
agreement between the International Monetary Fund and Greece.
June Treasury Bonds finished lower in flat, light trading.
Investors seemed unwilling to take a position until they see this weekâ€™s
auction results. Investors fear that the higher return in the equity markets
will encourage traders to seek higher yields in T-Bonds, thereby driving down
prices. Furthermore, some traders feel that the war of words between the U.S.
Treasury and China
over currency valuation will lead to less demand from the Chinese.
The stronger Dollar put pressure on April Gold early in the
trading session, but turned around once news began to leak that Germany and France
were behind a potential financial aid package agreement between the IMF and Greece.
June Crude Oil closed higher on renewed demand for higher
yielding assets. Crude oil was beginning to weaken when the news broke that France and Germany would support a Greece/IMF
financial aid agreement. The subsequent break in the Dollar and rally in the
Euro helped underpin crude oil into the close.
The March Euro finished lower as speculation continued to
grow that Greece
would have to seek financial aid from the International Monetary Fund. The good
news is France and Germany
is behind such an agreement, thereby increasing the chances that the process of
obtaining a loan may be expedited. In addition, once Greece
obtains a viable financial agreement with the IMF, more European Union nations
are likely to throw their financial support behind Greece.
This news came late in the trading session and allowed the
Euro to finish off its low on some light short-covering. At the start of
todayâ€™s session, it was apparent that Greece Prime Minister Papadreou
would leave this weekâ€™s European Union summit on March 25th and 26th without a
financial aid deal. This meant that Greece would have to turn to the
International Monetary Fund for aid if needed. This was being perceived negative
to the Euro because it makes Europe appear
weak for allowing one of its members to go out of the EU to seek financial
help. Now that France and Germany
are behind the move to get the IMFâ€™s backing, it appears to be a cooperative
agreement rather than a sporadic move.
Although the market reacted with a short-covering rally on
Tuesday, a financial aid agreement will be no guarantee of instant success for
the Euro. Some investors do feel, however, that there are too many shorts in
open positions to risk adding to positions at current price levels. This could
mean a quick, sharp short-covering rally may take place if an amicable
agreement is reached.
The Euro attempted to test the old main bottom at 1.3440,
but stopped after it ran out of selling pressure at 1.3475. Traders seem a
little reluctant to press the short-side at current levels out of fear of a
possible short-covering rally.
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