Wednesday March 24, 2010 - 04:51:56 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 24-Mar-2010 - 0336 GMT
The US Equities were up yesterday. The Dow (10888.93) was up 0.95% and the Nasdaq (2415.24) was up 0.83%. The Dow saw its biggest point (102.94) and percentage (0.95%) gain since March 5, it has risen 10 of the past 11 days and is at its highest level since Sept. 26, 2008. We continue to hold our view of a rise towards 11000-100 on the Dow in the coming days.
The Asian Equities are up today. The Nikkei (10826.38) is up 0.48%, the Shanghai (3069.478) is up 0.54% and the HangSeng (21148.90) is up 0.77%. In India, the Sensex (17451.02) was up 0.23% and the Nifty (5225.30) was up 0.39%. India is closed today on account of Ram Navami.
Crude (81.23) is continuing to trade above 80, but not showing much strength on its upmove as the stronger dollar is restricting it from fruther rise although the strong equity market is supporting it to remain above 80. Immedaite Resistance is seen at 82.50 a strong break above which might test the previous high of 83.95 (11-Jan-10). Support is seen at 80. The US Crude inventory data is due today.
Gold (1102.80) is retaining its downside pressure as the dollar is continuing to trade stronger. Technically speaking, the Head and Shoulder pattern seen on the daily candles and the oscillation around the neckline of this pattern over the last couple of days is adding further pressure on the downside. As mentioned earlier, a strong break below 1100 might see further 50-100 dollar fall. To see the Head and Shoulder pattern on the Gold graph click on the following link:
Dollar and Yen strengthened against most major currencies yesterday owing to risk aversion.
The Euro (1.3464) and the Pound (1.5004) led the slide amoung major currencies. The Euro was pressured by concerns over Greek aid/rescue while the Pound fell on low inflation and market expectations of poor retail sales numbers later this week. There's some Support near 1.34 in the Euro and 1.49 in the Pound which may be tested today.
Dollar-Yen (90.53) continues to trade in a 100 pip range (89.80-90.80). Dollar-Swiss (1.0583) has important Suport near 1.0550 which if broken could lead to a fall towards 1.04. In Aussie (0.9179), the Resistance near 0.9280 has been holding strong. If held, the pair could see some more consolidation above 0.90.
USD-KRW (1134.10) trading flattish over the last few days. Sing Dollar is trading higher. Dollar-Rupee which closed at 45.5950/6050 yesterday has been ranged over the last few days between 46.40-60. Dollar-Rupee is closed today on account of Ram Navami.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.28%. The yields on US Treasuries have risen yesterday. The 2Y and 10Y yields were last quoted at 1.02% and 3.68% v/s 0.96% and 3.66% respectively yesterday.
In India last week, the Reserve Bank of India increased the repo and reverse repo rates by 25 bps each to 5% and 3.5% respectively.
08:00 GMT Feb GER IFO Business Expectations
08:00 GMT Feb GER IFO Business Situations
08:00 GMT Feb GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 95.8...Previous 95.2
12:30 GMT Feb US Durable Goods Orders
...Expected 0.9%...Previous 2.6%
14:00 GMT Feb US New Home Sales
...Expected 316K...Previous 309K
Feb UK CPI Y/Y
...Actual 3.0%...Previous 3.5%
Feb US Existing Home Sales
...Actual 5.02 Mln...Previous 5.05 Mln
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