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European Market Update: Euro ignores better economic data to test 10-month lows against the dollar on possible IMF involvement for Greece; UK set to unveil its budget; Fitch cuts Portugal sovereign r

Wednesday, March 24, 2010 6:21:18 AM

 European Market Update: Euro ignores better economic data to test 10-month lows against the dollar on possible IMF involvement for Greece; UK set to unveil its budget; Fitch cuts Portugal sovereign ratings

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (GE) German Jan Real Construction Orders M/M: -8.7%; Y/Y: -5.2%
- (SA) South Africa: Feb CPI (all items) M/M: % v 0.6%e; Y/Y: % v 5.7%e
- (CZ Czech Mar Business Confidence: 3.7 v 4.1 prior; Consumer Confidence: -11.0 v -9.8 prior; Consumer&Businesss Confidence: 0,7 v 1.3 prior
- (FR) France Mar Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 56.3 v 54.6e; PMI Services: 53.0 v 54.8e
- (SW) Sweden Mar Consumer Confidence: 15.5 v 13.2e; Manufacturing Confidence: 3 v 5e; Economic Tendency: 107.0 v 109.0e
- (GE) Germany Mar Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 59.6 v 56.8e; PMI Services: 54.7 v 52.2e
- (IT) Italy Mar Consumer Confidence: 106.3 v 107.9e
- (GE) Germany Mar IFO Business Climate:98.1 v 95.8e; Current Assessment: v 91.0e ; Expectations Survey: v 100.9e
- (IC) Iceland Mar CPI M/M: % v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: % v 7.3% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 56.3 v 54.0e ; PMI Services: 53.7 v 52. ; PMI Composite: 55.5 v 53.8e
- (IT) Italy Q4 Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.3%e
- (PD) Poland Feb Unemployment Rate: 13.0% v 13.0%e
- (PD) Poland Feb Retail Sales M/M: -4.0% v -1.1%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 3.8%e
- (NO) Norway Jan AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.4%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Industrial New Order M/M: -2.0% v 1.8%e; Y/Y: 7.0% v 13.9%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: European equity markets printed new 18-months highs on a late rally Tuesday afternoon. These positive trading levels were sharply cut at 6:00EST with Fitch cutting its sovereign ratings on Portugal. Ahead of the UK's pre-election PBR and US durable goods data, equities opened positive with leadership in the financial and tech sector. Pre-market earnings commentary from UK listed names TUI Travel [TT.UK] and Smiths Group [SMIN.UK] was greeted positively while Man Group [EMG.UK] rotated lower and grocer Sainsbury [SBRY.UK] traded nearly flat. In Germany, solars put in a strong opening following final figures from Aleo [AS1.GE] and bullish guidance from Q-Cells [QCE.GE] that rallied the sector. Monthly order deliveries from truck manufacturer Volvo [VOLVB.SW] should a m/m and y/y increase, with continued slow signs of recovery in N American markets. These figures moved Renault [RNO.FR], MAN [MAN.GE] and Scania [SCVB.SW] higher. WTO statements after the close on Tuesday added further confusion to a continued EU/US, EADS [EAD.FR]/Boeing [BA] battle. Both firms claimed a victory from the results, despite the WTO upholding a ruling on unfair launch aid for the A380, EADS traded higher on the news. Equity markets paired back initial gains in the morning session before sharply pulling back into 6:00EST following Fitch action on Greece, with the sovereign cut, European financials rolled over sharply with the return of debt concerns in equity markets. Volume levels have recovered from earlier lows but still remain lower than their earnings seasons skewed averages.

- Individual equities: Q-Cells [QCE.GE]: Guides FY10 Rev €1-1.2B v €1Be; will accelerate switch to photovoltaic operations from solar cell. || Sainsbury [SBRY.UK]: Trading statement: Reports Q4 LFL ex fuel +1.7% v +1.4%e; total sales +7.1% y/y. || BG [BG.UK]: Confirms deal with CNOOC for Australian LNG. || Tui Travel [TT.UK]: Trading Statement: Seeing a significant recovery in consumer demand for leisure holidays resulting in strong. || Man Group [EMG.UK] Trading Statement: Funds under Management at 31 March 2010 currently estimated at $39.1B v $42.4B as of Dec 31, 2009. || Havas [HAV.FR]: Reports final FY09 Rev €1.44B v €1Be; proposes FY09 final dividend of €0.08/share v €0.04 y/y; proposes share buyback program. || Volvo [VOLVB.SW]: Reports Feb truck sales at 11.9K v 9.4K m/m (v 10.8K y/y). ||

- Speakers: Fitch lowered the Portuguese sovereign ratings to "AA-" from "AA" and maintained a negative outlook. The downgrade reflected significant budgetary underperformance in 2009. The general government deficit in that year was 9.3% of GDP, versus 6.5% of GDP forecast by Fitch last September. It noted that Portugal planned deficit adjustment was "Back-loaded"***German Fin Min Schauble commented in a FAZ interview that Germany would not to be involved in any EU commission loan to Greece but would act If Greece becomes insolvent. He did note that bilateral aid for Greece was not against the 'no bailout' clause but direct IMF for EMU must remain an exception. He sought tougher Masstrict Stability Pac*** ECB's Bini Smaghi commented that IMF involvement with Greece would hurt the euro's image and added that should not leave the fate of the euro to market forces. He stated that any Greece's insolvency would impact all European banks but the IMF should not lead any Greek rescue*** Former Japanese MoF Official Sakakibara commented that the JPY was undervalued against the USD and forecasted that the yen would gradually rise to 85.00. He added that the BOJ should not intervene in currency market. ***Poland Central Bank Kazimierczak wrote a piece in Dziennik that Poland was delaying its budget cuts due to elections and not doing enough to reduce its budget deficit. He added that Poland was conducting 'astronomical' debt sales. Poland needed 4.5% growth to trim its budget deficit and this type of growth is a long way off and added that 2012 was deemed too optimistic for Poland to exit the economic crisis (third week in a row of record amounts)*** China's PBoC to issue CNY160B in 3-month T-Bills on Thursday Mar 25th ***Fed's Evans commented that the US economic recovery was primary due to inventory adjustments. He noted that inflationary conditions remained contained and the monetary policy to remain accommodative. US 2010GDP growth to be modest, in range of 3-3.5% *** IFOs Nerb commented that there was no inflationary threat which implied that the ECB did not need to adjust its interest rates

- Currencies: The Euro ignored better European economic data through the session and continued to post fresh 10 month lows as it approached the 1.3350 level after French and German leaders stated that any aid package for Greece would require help from the IMF thus denting confidence in the European Union. Dealers reacting to sentiment such as expressed by ECB's Constancio on Tuesday that sending Greece to IMF would hurt the euro. The German IFO Business Sentiment hit it highest reading since June 2008 and aided by its export sector*** The JPY was broadly weaker as dealers took notice of a press report that Japanese insurance companies would increase their USD buying to invest in overseas bonds. Dealers also cited the interest rate factor adding to the firm tone in USD/JPY pair as US 2-year rates move back above the 1.02% level while the corresponding JGB yields less than 0.2%. USD/JPY testing one-month highs above 91.10 ***The GBP will focus on the unveiling of the UK budget later this morning. Overall the market will focus as to whether the Labour government will refrains from pre-election sweeteners and signals quicker fiscal tightening than set out in December by the Treasury. GBP/USD holding below the 1.50 handle. The issue will be Darling scales back borrowing plan aided by better tax receipts.

Geo-Political: Majority Dubai World owned DP World [DPW.UA] reported FY09 Net adj $333M v $482M y/y, Rev $2.82B v $3.3B y/y. The global port operator put its FY09 throughput at 25.6M TEU v 27.8M y/y, with 2010 ytd volume at +4% y/y, along with stating that it has seen positive signs of a macro recovery. DP World CEO stated: We are seeing positive signs of recovery, however it is still too early in 2010 to confirm sustainability as the macroeconomic environment and global trade patterns remain unpredictable. We will continue to focus on increasing market share and driving efficiencies through our terminals to generate revenue whilst maintaining tight cost control measures.

***Notes/Observations:
- Fitch lowers Portugal sovereign rating and risk aversion rises ahead of the NY morning
- Korea Intl Trade Assoc:: China will scrap the USD currency peg after June but likely limit gains to 5% annually.
- Japanese insurance companies increasing USD buying to invest in overseas bond
- Fed's Yellen: Will support rate hikes when the time comes.
- Euro at 10-month lows on European peripheral concerns; ignores better PMI and IFO data

***Looking Ahead:
- 7:00 (EU) EU Deficit Report on 10 nations
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Mar 19th: No est v -1.9% prior
- 7:30 (GE) German Gov't briefing on EU Summit
- 8:30 (UK) Exchequer Darling presents UK Budget Report
- 8:30 (US) Feb Durable Goods Orders: 0.7%e v 2.6% prior; Durables Ex Transportation: 0.6%e v -1.0% prior

- 9:00 ECB's Ordonez
- 9:00 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Interest Rate Decision: Consensus expectations are for the Deposit rate to remain unchanged at 1.75%
- 10:00 (EU) EU's Van Rompuy
- 10:00 (US) Feb New Home Sales: 315Ke v 309K prior; Sales M/M: 1.9%e v -11.2% prior
- 10:00 (TU) Turkey Mar Capacity Utilization Rate: No est v 67.8% prior
- 10:30 (US) DOE Weekly energy inventories: Crude +1.3Me; Gasoline: -1.5Me; Distillate: -1Me; Utilization: 80.6%e
- 10:45 Fed's Hoenig
- 11:00 ECB's Stark
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Preliminary Trade Balance: -2M v -333M prior
- 12:00 (SZ) SNB's Jordan
- 12:15 (US) US Tsy Wolin
- 12:45 (CA) Bank of Canada's Gov Carney
- 13:00 (FR) France Feb Net Change Total Jobseekers: No est v 19.5K prior; Total Jobseekers: No est v 2.66M prior
- 13:00 (US) US to sell $42B in 5-year notes
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Braunstein

 

 

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