Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (24 March 2010)
The euro depreciated sharply vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar
today as the single currency tested bids
around the US$ 1.3325 level and was capped around the $1.3505 level. The common currency was pressured lower after
ratings agency Fitch downgraded Portgualâ€™s debt from AA to AA- and adopted a
negative outlook for the country.Risk
appetite diminished as traders fear that Greeceâ€™s significant fiscal problems are
being complented by worsening woes in other eurozone countries including
Portugal and Spain.Greece is widely
expected to receive some financial assistance from the International Monetary
Fund, if not other eurozone members, but a worsening in other countriesâ€™ financial
conditions could precipitate a much larger crisis that could impact the entire
bloc and keep downward pressure on the euro.Data released in the eurozone today saw EMU-16 January new industrial
orders decrease 2% m/m and rise 7% y/y. Also, Germanyâ€™s March Ifo business
climate survey improved to its highest level since June 2008, reaching 98.1 â€“ a
sharp increase from Februaryâ€™s print of 95.2.The Ifo expectations survey reached its highest level since February
2007 at 101.9 in March.Additionally,
the EMU-16 PMI services index rallied to 53.7 from 51.8 in February and the
EMU-16 manufacturing PMI survey improved to 56.3 with German services and
manufacturing PMI surveys also notching gains.These data evidence the dichotomy between the improving eurozone economy
and a struggling eurozone finnacial environment.In
U.S. news, data released there saw MBA mortgage applications decline 4.2%
in the latest week while February durable goods at the headline level were up a
smaller-than-expected +0.5%, down from an upwardly-revised 3.9%. The
ex-transportation component came in above expectations at +0.9%, a sharp reversal
from the -0.6% decline last month.Other
data saw February new home sales off 2.2% m/m to an annualized 308,000, defying
expectations of an increase.Data to be
released tomorrow include weekly initial jobless claims and continuing jobless
claims.Chicago Fed President Evans said
recent economic growth has been precipitated by inventory adjustment following
the end of the recession but noted new sources of economic growth will need to
emerge.Evans yesterday said he would
not be surprised if the Fedâ€™s easy interest rate stance carried through to
2011.Kansas City Fed President Hoenig
reported U.S. economic growth will be about 3% this year and said the Fed
should continue normalizing monetary policy.Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3335 level.
The yen depreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ÂĄ91.95 level and was supported around the ÂĄ90.35
level. The greenback appreciated across
the board in response to heightened concerns about the severe fiscal problems
in the eurozone with many traders focusing on Portugal now.The Hatoyama government reported the postal
bank will double the amount of deposits it can accept from individual investors
and many of those proceeds are expected to find their way into the Japanese
government bond market.Hatoyama also
had his budget passed by Japanâ€™s Parliament today, a record ÂĄ92.3
trillion.Japan is expected to issue
around ÂĄ44 trillion in new bonds to help finance its massive spending programs
in the fiscal year beginning next month.Japanâ€™s fiscal situation is becoming perilous with very little room for
the government to enact supplementary fiscal budgets and additional stimuli on
account of the major growth in government expenditures.Data released in Japan overnight saw the
February trade balance print at +ÂĄ651 billion.Data to be released in Japan overnight include the February corporate
service price index with many economists expecting a 1.2% y/y decline.The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.38% to
close at ÂĄ10,815.03.U.S. dollar offers
are cited around the ÂĄ94.75 level.The euro moved higher vis-Ă -vis the yen
as the single currency tested offers around the ÂĄ122.75 level and was supported
around the ÂĄ121.40 level.The British pound moved higher vis-Ă -vis
the yen as sterling tested offers around the ÂĄ137.20 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-Ă -vis
the yen and tested offers around the ÂĄ86.05 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan
as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8267 in the over-the-counter market, up from
CNY 6.8264. Peopleâ€™s Bank of China
Governor Zhou reported â€śIf you can be sure about the recovery, then some of the
extraordinary stimulus policies can gradually phase out. On the other hand, you
should know itâ€™s not a W-shaped recovery.â€ťZhou yesterday intimated that Chinese officials might hold bilateral
talks with U.S. officials to discuss exchange rates, noting â€śvery high profile
noiseâ€ť isnâ€™t â€śhelpful.â€ť Traders are focusing on a U.S. government report due 15
April that could potentially identify China as a â€ścurrency manipulator.â€ťU.S. Senators Schumer and Graham are seeking
to pass legislation by the end of May that would enact penalties against China
for not liberalizing its yuan exchange rate enough.
British pound depreciated sharply vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable
tested bids around the US$ 1.4875 level and was capped around the $1.5045
level. The U.K. is suffering from significant
debt levels and sterling fell following the downgrade of Portugal by Fitch.Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling today
reduced his budget deficit forecast for the next five fiscal years by ÂŁ44
billion.On the whole, Darlingâ€™s fiscal
report was more proactive than expected about addressing the U.K.â€™s fiscal
problems.Darlingâ€™s announcement was
important today as it represented Labourâ€™s last major chance to reassure global
investors about that the party is committed to fiscal and economic reform.U.K. gilt sales are expected to decline about
18% in the next fiscal year.The U.K.â€™s
2009-2010 budget deficit is expected to total around ÂŁ167 billion and be
slightly less in the 2010-2011 fiscal year.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4455 level.The
euro moved higher vis-Ă -vis the British pound as the single currency tested
offers around the ÂŁ0.8910 level and was capped around the ÂŁ0.8980 level.
franc weakened vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested
offers around the CHF 1.0715 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0555 level.
Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman Jordan
reiterated the central bank will work to prevent excessive franc
appreciation.Swiss National Bank
President Hildebrand yesterday reported the central bank will â€śdecisivelyâ€ť act
against â€śexcessiveâ€ť franc strength, noting the central bank can intervene to a
â€śvery large extent.â€ťSwiss National Bank
on Monday published its quarterly economic report today and noted it will
continue to â€śact decisivelyâ€ť to prevent an â€śexcessiveâ€ť appreciation of the
franc.In recent days, many dealers
speculated the SNB would be less likely to sell francs for euro given the
recent improvement in the U.S. economy and the cross has fallen to fresh
multi-month lows as a result. SNB today indicated it expects the Swiss recovery
to be â€śmoderate and fragile.â€ť U.S.
dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1180 level. The euro came off vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc as the single currency
tested bids around the CHF 1.4230 level while the British pound moved higher vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested
offers around the CHF 1.6025 level.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.