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Thursday March 25, 2010 - 11:22:09 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 25/03/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis March 25,
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the GDP
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of
and is a key indicator for the economy's health.
Annualized (quarterly change x4) percent changes in GDP shows the growth
of the economy as a whole.
Consumption is by far the largest component in the
GDP of the US and has the
most affect on it.
The figures can be quite
volatile from quarter to quarter. A higher than
expected reading should be
taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a
lower than expected reading
should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict a future
reading of 5.90%.
broke the support specified in yesterday's report 1.3390 , and
reaching the first suggested target 1.3326 successfully, before
1.33 for the first time since May 7th of last year. This
completely expected, not only that, but we believe what we have
seen yet is
just part one of a strong and massive medium term drop which has
started! We will not be a bit surprised when we see the Euro below
the near future, on the contrary, we look forward with eager to
that. As for
the short term, we may see a correction that retests the
1.3434-1.3462 before the weekend, and we may not! This depends
the short term support or resistance. We see resistance at
1.3459, and the
EURUSD will stay harmed, trading under a very negative
technical outlook as
long as we are below this resistance. But if a surprise
takes us above this
level, we will correct the last wave down from 1.38.
Ideal targets for such a
correction are 1.3550 & 1.3612. As for the support
it is at 1.3303 and
breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop.
We do expect large
targets to be met before the weekend, such as 1.3190
* 1.3303: important intraday
* 1.3190: Apr 30th low.
* 1.3088: Apr 10th
* 1.3459: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
* 1.3550: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.3816.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from
After days & days of
putting it under our surveillance, and pouring all our
attention on it, the
"magnetic" resistance 90.78 was broken and we have seen
what follows the
break of such important levels. The Dollar jumped strongly
specified resistance in yesterday's report 90.78 & successfully
both suggested targets 91.60 & 92.31, stopping only 7 pips above
second target! With this break, the Dollar has released itself from
and the direction of the Dollar in this pair could now agree with
direction against the European currencies, and we could end up seeing a
Dollar rally against all majors. After this rocketing rise, a
normally expected, and here, the previous critical resistance
turned to a support that the price should hold above. Short term
at 91.40 & breaking it would indicate a drop to 90.78 to retest
price holds above it, or at least close to it, there will be no harm.
we go back below this level, the positive technical outlook will get
hard, and price will drop towards 89.99. As for the resistance it is at
& if broken, the current rise will continue, and the Dollar will rise
a new set of targets which includes: 93.20 &
* 91.40: short term 38.2% Fibonacci
* 90.78: the previous important resistance, and Fibonacci
* 89.99: the rising trend line from 89.61 on the hourly
* 92.09: the falling trend line from
* 93.20: Jan 4th high.
* 93.75: Jan 8th
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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