stock indices are trading higher overnight as sovereign debt concerns eased a
little over developments ahead of the European Union summit. Last night German
Chancellor Angela Merkel said she would back aid for Greece with International Monetary
Fund involvement as a â€ślast resortâ€ť. European Central Bank President Trichet
helped ease tensions by extending the bankâ€™s emergency lending rules.This move by Trichet was a marked change from
the ECBâ€™s decision not to soften its collateral policy to aid a single country.
Both news stories helped the Euro stabilize overnight which
drove up demand for higher yielding assets, helping to boost equity prices.
Later today Fed Chairman Bernanke is going to speak about interest rates. His
commentary is likely to move the markets if he makes any changes to the Fedâ€™s
outlook on the future of interest rate hikes. At this time, the Fed is
committed to keeping interest rates low for an â€śextended period.â€ť
New Jobless Claims fell as the employment picture looks to
be improving. Initial claims fell 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 442,000 in
the week ended March 20th. Pre-report estimates were for a drop to 450,000.
Stocks are unchanged following the jobs data. Based on this
assessment, it looks as if the news regarding the Euro and sovereign debt
concerns in Greece
will continue to dominate the trade. Yesterday, stocks finished lower, but the
drop was muted despite a huge drop in the Euro.
June Treasury Bonds are trading lower once again. The
futures markets are indicating that interest rates are rising. The cause of the
rise in yields is being attributed to increased competition with corporate debt
issuers. Investors are in control because of the increased supply of debt
hitting the market. Because of this condition, they can ask for higher yields.
Downside momentum is building which could take the June T-Bonds to 115â€™06.
Oversold conditions may slow down the rate of decline, but the down trend has
been clearly defined.
The weaker Dollar because of the developments in Europe has stopped the break in June Gold. The slight
rise in gold is mostly profit-taking at this time after a recent $40 decline.
The main trend is down, but bearish traders have not been able to accelerate
the break to the downside despite taking out bottoms at $1097.30 and $1088.50
earlier this week.
The main trend is down in June Crude Oil, but like gold, the
down trend has not been able to accelerate because of the lack of selling
pressure. The weaker Dollar this morning and a general demand for higher risk
assets are helping to boost energy prices. Yesterday, the weekly supply and
demand was bearish, but once again the lack of selling pressure prevented the
market from reaching its downside objective at 77.28. Traders will be looking
for support today from higher stocks, the Euro and a weaker Dollar.
Forex Trading News
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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