stock indices sold off late in the trading session as renewed risk concerns
made traders nervous, encouraging position paring and profit-taking.
Stocks were trading better throughout the day as investors
seemed optimistic about positive developments in Europe regarding financial aid
This story was driving up global assets while weakening the Dollar. Comments
from Fed Chairman Bernanke regarding lower interest rates for a â€śprolonged
periodâ€ť also helped drive stock prices higher.
Relief that the Greek debt situation is being addressed at
this weekâ€™s two day European Union summit was the catalyst behind the start of
todayâ€™s rally. Overnight, foreign debt concerns eased a little. Last night
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she would back aid for Greece with
International Monetary Fund involvement as a â€ślast resortâ€ť. European Central
Bank President Trichet helped ease tensions by extending the bankâ€™s emergency
lending rules.This move by Trichet was
a marked change from the ECBâ€™s decision not to soften its collateral policy to
aid a single country.
Late in the trading session, comments from Trichet sent the
Euro lower which spilled over to the equity markets. Trichet basically said
that he does not favor International Monetary Fund aid to Greece. He felt
that this would be a sign of weakness for the European Union. His comments
triggered a break in the Euro which helped weaken the U.S. equity
markets into the close. Traders were discouraged from holding on to higher risk
assets because of the possibility the EU summit would end without an agreement
being reached regarding a financial aid package for Greece.
Stocks have been moving higher because they are the only
game in town. Interest rates remain low, the economy is improving and there is
still enough stimulus money to provide liquidity. Almost perfect trading
conditions have driven investors toward more risk. Low volatility may be a sign
that traders have become too complacent. This makes stocks susceptible to a
short-term correction. Todayâ€™s closing price reversal top in the June E-mini
S&P and NASDAQ could prove to be the start of such a correction.
June Treasury Bonds finished lower once again as yields rose.
The futures markets are indicating that higher interest rates are coming and
inflation may be right around the corner. The cause of the rise in yields is
being attributed to increased competition with corporate debt issuers.
Investors are in control because of the increased supply of debt hitting the
market. Because of this condition, they can ask for higher yields. Downside
momentum is building which could take the June T-Bonds to 114â€™15.
The sideways trading action in the Dollar triggered a
two-sided trade in June Gold. Without any solid news from the EU summit,
speculators have had very little to trade off. Earlier trading action indicates
that the direction of the Dollar is controlling the movement in the gold
market. The late rally in the Dollar failed to pressure gold which could mean
that investors speculating on the demise of the Euro or the lack of confidence
in paper currency may be supporting gold.
The main trend is down in June Crude Oil, but like gold, the
down trend has not been able to accelerate because of the lack of selling
pressure. The sideways Dollar has created light, choppy conditions in the crude
oil market. Like the other higher risk assets, investors are waiting for
something to come out of the EU summit to move the markets. Thursdayâ€™s late
session break in the Euro triggered by less demand for higher risk could
trigger a break on Friday.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
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