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Friday March 26, 2010 - 00:47:26 GMT
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Stocks Sell-off on Renewed Risk Concerns

U.S. stock indices sold off late in the trading session as renewed risk concerns made traders nervous, encouraging position paring and profit-taking.

 

Stocks were trading better throughout the day as investors seemed optimistic about positive developments in Europe regarding financial aid to Greece. This story was driving up global assets while weakening the Dollar. Comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke regarding lower interest rates for a “prolonged period” also helped drive stock prices higher.

 

Relief that the Greek debt situation is being addressed at this week’s two day European Union summit was the catalyst behind the start of today’s rally. Overnight, foreign debt concerns eased a little. Last night German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she would back aid for Greece with International Monetary Fund involvement as a “last resort”. European Central Bank President Trichet helped ease tensions by extending the bank’s emergency lending rules.  This move by Trichet was a marked change from the ECB’s decision not to soften its collateral policy to aid a single country.

 

Late in the trading session, comments from Trichet sent the Euro lower which spilled over to the equity markets. Trichet basically said that he does not favor International Monetary Fund aid to Greece. He felt that this would be a sign of weakness for the European Union. His comments triggered a break in the Euro which helped weaken the U.S. equity markets into the close. Traders were discouraged from holding on to higher risk assets because of the possibility the EU summit would end without an agreement being reached regarding a financial aid package for Greece.

 

Stocks have been moving higher because they are the only game in town. Interest rates remain low, the economy is improving and there is still enough stimulus money to provide liquidity. Almost perfect trading conditions have driven investors toward more risk. Low volatility may be a sign that traders have become too complacent. This makes stocks susceptible to a short-term correction. Today’s closing price reversal top in the June E-mini S&P and NASDAQ could prove to be the start of such a correction.

 

June Treasury Bonds finished lower once again as yields rose. The futures markets are indicating that higher interest rates are coming and inflation may be right around the corner. The cause of the rise in yields is being attributed to increased competition with corporate debt issuers. Investors are in control because of the increased supply of debt hitting the market. Because of this condition, they can ask for higher yields. Downside momentum is building which could take the June T-Bonds to 114’15.

 

The sideways trading action in the Dollar triggered a two-sided trade in June Gold. Without any solid news from the EU summit, speculators have had very little to trade off. Earlier trading action indicates that the direction of the Dollar is controlling the movement in the gold market. The late rally in the Dollar failed to pressure gold which could mean that investors speculating on the demise of the Euro or the lack of confidence in paper currency may be supporting gold.

 

The main trend is down in June Crude Oil, but like gold, the down trend has not been able to accelerate because of the lack of selling pressure. The sideways Dollar has created light, choppy conditions in the crude oil market. Like the other higher risk assets, investors are waiting for something to come out of the EU summit to move the markets. Thursday’s late session break in the Euro triggered by less demand for higher risk could trigger a break on Friday.

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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