Friday March 26, 2010 - 03:55:58 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 26-Mar-2010 - 0336 GMT
The US Equities ended flat erasing all its gains in the last half hour of the trade. The MArkets fell on account of disappointing Treasury auction and discord among European leaders about how to rescue Greece yesterday. The Dow (10841.21) and the Nasdaq (2397.41) ended flat.
The Asian Equities are up today. The Nikkei (10900.32, up 0.66%) rose, as the weaker yen boosted the earnings outlook for companies dependent on overseas demand. The Nikkei is coming closer to our initial target of 11000, a break above which may take it towards 11250 in the coming weeks. The Shanghai (3038.24, up 0.63%) may be ranged between 2975 and 3100 for some more days before a break on the either side is visible. The HangSeng (20816.48) is up 0.18%. In India, the Sensex (17558.85) was up 0.62% and the Nifty (5260.40) was up 0.67% yestarday. The Sensex may rise towards 18000 if it continues to honour the Support at 17500 in the coming days.
Crude (80.60), though continuing to trade lower, it is holding on to its immediate Support at 80. A break and close below 80 might pull it down to 78-77.50 in the coming days. Remember Crude has been ranged between 68-84 over the last few months and its finding itself very hard to break on the upside of the range although it is trading above 89 for more than two weeks.
Gold (1090.10) is continuing to trade below 1100. The stronger dollar is retaining the downside pressure. As mentioned earlier, with the confirmation of the Head and Shoulder reversal pattern combined with the continued strengthening of the dollar, we might expect a further fall to 1050-30 in the coming days. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
Overall weakness continues in the Euro (1.3330) which dropped to a low of 1.3268 yesterday after a bit of a rally to 1.3387 earlier in the day yesterday. "Recovery" from here will need a rise past 1.34, which seems difficult immediately. Down is currently the path of least resistance. Dollar-Yen (92.47) continues to trade higher in what could be a reversal of the downtrend since 2007. The rise in US yields is one of the reasons for the added strength in the Dollar this week. Even the Aussie (0.9090) is retreating against the US Dollar, failing to find Buyers at 0.91. The Pound (1.4878) continues to look weak. Dollar-Swiss (1.0715) is pausing in a rally that can target 1.08.
In Asia, the Sing Dollar remains weak at 1.4061 and can weaken further towards 1.4125. Dollar-Won (1141) has moved up quite a bit from the 1125-35 region it had been trading in last week. The movement in the Won is mirroring that in the Yen.
Dollar-Rupee had closed lower at 45.4950 yesterday. The NDFs are relatively quiet near 45.55. Expect the range of 45.40-70 to remain good today, the last day of the week.
3M USD LIBOR was raised by 1 bp to 0.29%. The yields on US Treasuries dipped slightly yesterday after a sharp surge the day before. The 2Y and 10Y yields were quoting 2 and 1 bps lower at 1.06% and 3.86% respectively. There's Resistance on 10Y yields near 3.90%.
The surge in yields on Wednesday resulted in a sharp decline in Bund-Bond yield differentials. It broke below an important Support. The TBond-JGB Differential has found an important Support. These can have significant implications in the currency market going forward. The charts for these can be seen by clicking on the link below:
12:30 GMT US GDP Q4 '09 (Pre)
...Expected 5.9%...Previous 5.9%
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