European Market Update: ECB Trichet clarifies IMF remark
Friday, March 26, 2010
European Market Update: ECB Trichet clarifies IMF remark
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) cuts the Refi Rate by 25bps to 8.25% (in line with views) - (SI) Singapore Feb Industrial Production M/M: 5.9% v -4.0%e; Y/Y: 19.1% v 13.7%e - (FI) Finland Feb Preliminary Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.2% v -0.9% prior - (FR) France Mar Consumer Confidence: -34 v -32e - (SP) Spain Jan Mortgages on House Y/Y: 2.3% v -1.3% prior; Capital-Loaned Y/Y: -14.4% v -17.1% prior - (AS) Austria Jan Industrial Production M/M: 5.8% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.5% v -4.6% prior - (TT) Taiwan Feb Leading Index M/M: 0.6% v 1.9% prior; Coincident index M/M: 1.1% v 1.1% prior - (SW) Sweden Feb Trade Balance (SEK): 0.6B v 8.5Be - (NO) Norway Mar Unemployment Rate: 3.1% v 3.2%e - (SP) Spain Jan Total Housing Permits M/M: -23.7% v -11.5% prior; Y/Y: -29.6% v -44.3% prior - (NO) Norway Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 4.2% V 4.4%e - (UK) Q4 Final Total Business investment Q/Q: %-4.3 v -5.8%e; Y/Y: -23.5% v -24.1%e
European Market Update: ECB Trichet clarifies IMF remark *** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Equity markets in Europe opened on a weak tone, pulling back from a late Thursday surge that saw new 18-month market highs (FTSE100 breaking 5700). Chinese markets posted a late positive upwards pop following Economic Advisor commentary that implied interests rates will hold steady. This momentum failed to correlate into direct results in Europe. IPO and secondary action has been in focus through the European morning with VW [VOW3.GE] pricing its pref secondary offering at â‚¬65/share, raising â‚¬4.1B (part of Porsche merger) and Cori [CORA.NV] pricing its offering at â‚¬45/share, raising â‚¬600m (part of retail portfolio buy). Spot secondary and stake holder sales in Nordex [NDX1.GE], Abertis [ABE.S] and Iliad [ILD.FR] led to sharp pull backs in trading levels. German retail name Tom Tailor [TTI.GE] IPO'd at â‚¬13/share (inline with its pricing) while UK spin off Cable and Wireless Worldwide [CW.UK] launched on the LSE. Equity markets trended lower through the first hour of trade, showing a bottom at approx 5:00EST following a never ending stream of political talk regarding Greece. Greece and the wrap of the a EU Summit has once again grabbed the headlines with a continuation of yesterday's consensus. In other equity moves, Siemens [SIE.GE] shares have shown continued volatility as the group holds an analyst conference and discussed Q2 expectations. After earnings from Oracle [ORCL], SAP [SAP.GE] group reaffirmed its FY10 guidance yet reflected Oracles lower rotation. Into 6:00EST, markets have trended off their worst levels, but remain flat or downside oriented.
- Individual equities: Siemens [SIE.GE]: Guides Q2 Rev higher than Q1 2010, but down y/y (implies > â‚¬16.52B v â‚¬17.2Be); Expects increase y/y in Q2 in some business sectors. || VW [VOW3.GE]: To price share sale at â‚¬65/share vs the speculate range of â‚¬64-65/share range. || Cori [CORA.NV]: Completes â‚¬600M offering; 13.33M new shares placed at â‚¬45/shr. || Acerinox [ACX.SP]: Decided not to ask for the extension of the Temporal Labour Adjustment Plan at Cadiz Facility. || Tom Tailor [TTI.GE]: IPO opens at â‚¬13/share (priced at â‚¬13/share). || Cable and Wireless [CW.UK]: Admission to Listing; ordinary shares will be admitted to the Official List and will start trading on the main market of the London Stock Exchange. ||
- Speakers: China PBoC Dep Gov Hu reiterated the official view that China's monetary policy remained 'appropriately loose' and stressed that it sought the need to rein in volatility of loans growth. It stressed that it would channel credit towards appropriate sectors of the economy and maintain a more balanced, steady and rigorous growth in 2010. The PBoC would manage inflationary expectations but stated it needed a broader range of vision complemented with policy tools and must not rely on a single factor. The official added that asset bubbles could pose large threat to global economy and global policy makers should coordinate policies in crisis and ensure healthy economic growth in their own markets and study the impact on others*** China Vice Premier Hui Liangu commented that China to continue with its 'proactive' fiscal and 'moderately loose' monetary policy ***China Econ Advisor Liu commented that currency volatility could disrupt capital flows and reiterates the Chinese iew that a stable CNY currency benefited not only China, but the global economy and added that a Yuan currency rate at any level would not benefit US producers. He stressed that US policy makers should not be swayed by minor views and that pressuring China on the currency was not in America's interest *** German Chancellor Merkel expressed satisfaction with Greek deal reached at EU Summit and believes it would help Euro currency stability *** Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) Christodoulou commented that the EU accord removed Greek sovereign default risk and raised the credibility of the government's austerity plan. He added that there was no need to raise more than â‚¬15.5B by end of May *** OECD provided its 2010/11 outlook on German Economy and noted that Germany's economic activity was set to expand steadily, but consumer inflation would likely stay at below 1% weighed down by private consumption and unemployment. The agency noted that Germany's labor market policy needed to prepare for a marked increase in the jobless rate. It forecasted 2010 GDP +1.1% and saw 2011 growth +1.9% ***
- Currencies/Fixed Income: The Euro breathed a sigh of relief during the Friday session as the mix of IMF and bilateral loans at market interest rates for Greece painted a clear political message of solidarity for the EU. Throughout the week the concern over a lack of "decisive actions" at the EU summit had weighed upon its sentiment and unsettled investors. The Euro retracement also built upon technical factors and excuses after EUR/USD tested fresh 10-month lows on Thursday. The euro retracement began in Asia after ECB's Trichet clarified his view of IMF involvement for Greece that what he meant was not what he stated when calling IMF aid a "very bad idea" on Thursday. Nonetheless dealers continue to get the impression that behind closed doors: Germany actually quite pleased that weaker Euro and its potential to improve the country export outlook. *** The USD/JPY consolidating near its pivotal three-year downtrend pivot point around the 92.50 area. Dealers continue to stress that the interest rate spread playing a huge role in the pair's price action with sentiment leaning toward buying any USD dip in the pair. ***The GBP was softer as dealers assessed the UK budget implications. Traders taking note of comments made by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) that the UK debt interest payment would reach 10.6% of tax revenues in 2014-15 (highest debt interest payment level since the 1980s). The lack of details on planned UK public spending cuts also probing some concerns. ***Bund futures are lower after the EU agreement on Greece , with save haven flows reversing and Greek spreads narrowing.
Geo-Political:Ukraine has formally put forward a request for gas payments 1/3 below current market prices to Russia. The asked price would include provisions allowing Gazprom to take an expanded borrowing/management role in the day to day operation of Ukraine based pipeline infrastructure. Ukraine's Pres Yanukovych has pressed these prices despite the expiration of a 10-year gas contract in 2009 that led to a 'liberalization' of export prices to Ukraine into line with those paid in Western Europe. Under proposed plans, Gazprom and a European partner would each be granted a 1/3 managing stake in the pipeline network, and commit them to providing funds for a planned modernization/expansion plan. *** Italian politicians are braced for regional elections that will see 13 governor roles put to the electorate. Of those 13, 11 are currently held by center-left broad coalition that is the primary rival to current PM Silvio Berlusconi. In a now notorious scandal and corruption fraught political system, the election is being touted as a barometer of public support for the controversial PM. Regional elections in Russia and France have shown broad popular discontent with those parties ruling during current economic malaise.
***Notes/Observations: - Russia Central Bank cuts Refi rate for the 14th time in easing cycle - ECB Trichet clarifies what he meant on IMF aid - Plethora of comments continue to stream out of China: PBOC Dep Gov Zhu reaffirmed intention to refine CNY; PBOC Advisor Fan: China could move to greater flexibility; China PBoC Dep Gov Hu reiterated the official view that China's monetary policy remained 'appropriately loose'
***Looking Ahead: - 6:30 (SZ) Swiss Mar KOF Economic Forecasts - 7:00 (BR) Brazil Mar FGV Construction Costs M/M: No est v 0.4% prior - 7:00 (IR) Ireland Jan Preliminary Trade Balance: No est v â‚¬2.7B prior - 7:15 (EU) ECB Cnstancio - 8:15 (GE) German Chancellor Merkel press conference post EU Summit - 8:30 (US) Q4 Final GDP Annualized: 5.9%e v 5.9% prior; Personal Consumption: 1.7%e v 1.7% prior - 8:30 (US) Q4 Final GDP Price Index: 0.45e v 0.4% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.6%e v 1.6% prior - 9:30 (US) USTR Kirk press conference in Brussels - 9:55 (US) Mar Final University of Michigan: 73.0e v 72.5 prior - 11:30 (US) Fed's Walsh speaks on Fed independence - 12:00 (EU) ECB's Trichet - 16:00 (EU) ECB's Papademos; (US) Fed's Bullard; IMF Chief Economist Blanchard in Wash DC
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