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Friday March 26, 2010 - 14:25:30 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Trichet surrenders with the troops?

Key News
Business investment in Britain fell 4.3 percent between October and December 2009, slightly less than previously estimated but still giving a record 23.5 percent annual drop, official data showed on Friday. (Reuters)
 
Quotable
“No sooner met but they looked; no sooner looked but they loved; no sooner loved but they sighed; no sooner sighed but they asked one another the reason; no sooner knew the reason but they sought the remedy” — William Shakespeare

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FX Trading – Trichet surrenders with the troops? 

On Wednesday the word was schadenfreude, appropriately today it is French:

sur·ren·der  // 
–verb (used with object)
1. to yield (something) to the possession or power of another; deliver up possession of on demand or under duress: to surrender the fort to the enemy

An example of usage in a sentence:  The Eurozone could not handle its own problems and decided to surrender authority to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 

Mr. Jean-Claude Trichet, maximum leader of the European Central Bank (ECB) understands the market implications of this surrender of authority/responsibility.  Of course Eurozone state “leaders” seem quite happy to be able to “save our comrade Greece” with other peoples’ money.  There is unity on that score. 

Trichet understands clearly the implication of passing the buck (or euro) to the IMF, and thus stood his ground on this point yesterday for at least two hours. [News sources indicate he was wearing some new shoes, and just couldn’t stand the pain. So he stood no longer and capitulated for the sake of Euro “unity”.  Our inside sources said it was duress, as there was move afoot by Brussels to ration Jean-Cluade’s croissants; a man can only take so much pain.]

Now this comment, reported in the Financial Times,  is hyperbole taken to a whole new level, which is quite a feat for a for a Eurozone bureaucrat given that hyperbole is already has reached ozone damaging heights (and where is Al Gore-leone when you need him for some protection):

“We hope that it will reassure all the holders of Greek bonds that the eurozone will never let Greece fail,” said Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council. “If there were any danger, the other members of the eurozone would intervene.”

It almost brings one to tears to see such love and harmony for our fellow states. 

It’s interesting how the Eurozone government types (I shouldn’t pick on Europe in particular, as our fine government in the good old US has proven it can out incompetence anyone at any given time) love to run around and form committees and create rules and regulations, and show how well their vaunted Union works with such order and precision and unity.  All “no” votes by the unwashed trying to stave off such “good government” are only temporary affairs for unity is vital for all comrades—simply vote again till we get a “yes” and always remember 2 +2 = 5. 

Well, they’ve gotten a whole lot yes votes for unity, but the fact is they couldn’t step up during crunch time and prove said unity really does exist. Maybe the market likes the news now. But we think this surrender to the IMF reverberates back on the European Monetary Union—big time.

Thus, our clarion calls for the Euro going to Par or Beyond (which seems most likely) stands.  We stand firm behind that call in our most comfortable shoes. 

EURUSD Monthly: [Chart not available in text format.]

Happy Friday! Be careful out there.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital
www.blackswantrading.com

David here again …

Yesterday was a pause; today is a gift. And you can thank ECB President Trichet for that!

The euro has rebounded this morning thanks to Mr. Trichet falling on his sword, allowing Greece’s fiscal dirt-pile to be swept under the IMF’s rug.

So has the summit reached a solution to the European Monetary System’s faults, i.e. an imbalance between member countries that’s resulted in fiscal ills? Doubtful.

But it’s enough of a resolution to warrant some short-covering, a euro bounce. It’s our firm belief that now’s the time to reload; use this opportunity to place your bets and make the most of them.

And as we’ve been reminding you all week: we’re here to help you do that.

It’s PositionTrader FX. And if you want to step foot in foreign exchange markets without being blown away by too much risk, too much action, or too much incomprehensible mumbo jumbo, then I urge you to give us a try.

There’s always a 30-day money-back guarantee if you determine this isn’t right for you. 

Have a great weekend!

All the best,

David Newman
Director of Sales and Marketing
Black Swan Capital
dnewman@blackswantrading.com
Phone: 866-846-2672

 

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