Thursday March 10, 2005 - 00:50:35 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 10th March 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.1600 ... 1.1624 ... 1.1646 ... 1.1664
Support....: 1.1575 ... 1.1553 ... 1.1520 ... 1.1497
While 1.1600-24 continues to hold there is a risk of one final drop to 1.1515-25
No break above 1.1650 yesterday and further losses. We are slightly in two minds as to whether the 1.1553 provided the final low or whether there is chance of a further decline before the larger move higher resumes. Thus we feel that any bullish stance needs to be confirmed first and any move above the 1.1600 and then 1.1624 would provide a strong argument for gains extending towards 1.1664-1.1690 and possibly 1.1722. Further (strong) resistance is found in the 1.1778 area.
Losses were seen to the high end of the 1.1515-53 support range. Having seen this achieved it is quite possible that it has provided the low in this move. However, we feel the wave structure from the 1.1778 high is not yet complete and thus while the 1.1600-24 area holds we feel there is risk for one final decline to the 1.1515-25 area which we expect to hold and generate a stronger recovery. Further support is found at 1.1473-97.
Elliott Wave Comments:
9th March 2005
With the sharp drop yesterday below the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1567-1.1826 rally at 1.1664 we feel that the 1.1826 high should now be labeled as Wave x and thus from there we are seeing a three wave move lower, the Wave -a- at 1.1664, Wave -b- at 1.1778 and thus we look for targets for Wave -c-. A 138.2% target lies at 1.1554 while a 161.8% target lies at 1.1516 which also matches a 76.4% retracement of the 1.1282 - 1.2262 rally. This final decline would complete a triple three and imply strong gains.
10th March 2005
To update we feel that the 1.1583 low can be labeled as Wave -iii- of the decline from 1.1778 and that 1.1553 looks to be Wave -a- of Wave -v- and thus there remains a risk of a move down to 1.1515-25 still. Above 1.1624 and 1.1646 confirms reversal and a move back to the Wave -b- high at 1.1778.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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