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Friday March 26, 2010 - 19:11:25 GMT
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FXTimes: Weekly Technical Update 3.26.2010

Greenback Firms As Japanese Yen Weakens

This week, the greenback strengthened broadly. There was general risk aversion in the markets. The Japanese yen, which usually gains during risk averse periods broke that correlation this weak and its own deflationary concerns pared its recent gains.

EUR/USD Targets 1.3050

  • Daily and 4H: The EUR/USD declined as anticipated in last week’s post. The market declined consistently this week until Friday. The intermediate target remains at 1.30/1.31 or 1.3050.
  • In the short-term, there is a correction, signaled by the current price action and the bullish divergence.
  • Since the EUR/USD has a strong trending component, I would expect a short correction towards 1.3450/1.3470 (38.2% retracement).
  • Look for topping action coming out of next week’s early action, then we may have another swing down towards 1.3050.

GBP/USD Targets 1.44

  • Daily and 4H: The sterling has similar dynamic as the Euro against the greenback. Its intermediate term target is 1.44.
  • In the short-term however, there is a correction suggested by the bullish divergence with basing action above 1.48.
  • The 1.50/1.5050 area is the 38.2% retracement, and we may see some topping action next week. If the market breaks above that level, we may have further sideways action, and a break below 1.48 will be needed to confirm the bearish outlook to 1.44.

USD/JPY May head to 100.50

  • Weekly: The USD/JPY reflects the strength of the greenback and the weakness of the Japanese yen. This week, it broke a long-term declining trendline. A possible target in the long-intermediate time horizon is the 38.2% retracement at 100.50. This is also the 2009-high for the pair.


  • Daily and 4H: The short-term target in the daily time-frame is the 93.60 area (138.2% extended retracement and previous top). But the 4H time-frame is showing some resistance at the 92.90 level.
  • There is a bearish divergence with the stochastic. If the market declines, a short-term target would be the 90.50 area. We could still expect some resistance near the previous top at 93.60.
  • Since the market has been in a long-term bearish mode, our bullish outlook requries some more confirmation. For example, looking at the weekly chart, after a break above that previous high, a break above 94.00 (neckline) and another throwback should be enough confirmation for the outlook towards 100.50.

USD/CAD To Test 38.2% Retracement

  • Daily and 4H: The 1.00 target still remains, but the market exhibited broad-based strength and that was reflected in the USD/CAD as well. The dynamic against the Canadian dollar is a lot different than against the EUR, GBP, and the JPY as shown in the above posts.
  • Judging from the 4H time-frame the rally has been choppy and labrious.
  • The stochastic in the daily is no longer in oversold levels.
  • To start the week, I would anticipate some topping action near the 1.0370 area (38.2% retracement, 200MA in 4H chart, and previous support).
  • An bearish attempt after that suggests a downswing towards 1.00.

EUR/GBP: Anticipating one More Short-term Bull Swing

  • Daily and 4H: The EUR/GBP broke below a double top formation last week, but it could also be an expanded flat, which has bullish implications.
  • The daily shows a short-term bullish target at 0.9200.
  • The 4H time-frame shows that the timing is not there yet. As anticipated from last week’s post, the market was supported above 0.89, and a pullback topped at 0.9050.
  • The market retested 0.8900, which held, and is now in another bullish attempt.
  • The market may now be in its bullish leg towards 0.9200. A break above 0.9050 would confirm.
  • In the near-term, there appears to be some topping action.
  • If the market breaks below 0.8900, the bullish outlook is invalidated.

AUD/USD: Reversal Signal

  • Daily and 4H: The AUD/USD pair is also reflecting recent greenback strength. In the daily, we see some bearish outlook projections, first one being above the 78.6% retracement level, in confluence with the 200SMA. This should be near 0.8800.
  • The 4H time-frame shows the bearish move this week breaking an important rising support as well as a flat support at 0.9060.
  • Look for a bounce at 0.90. If a rally from there is held under 0.9090/0.91, then the bearish outlook may be in place.
  • Essentially, looking at the stochastic, we see that the momentum is in a bearish cycle. We want to see a bullish cycle, and assess whether it confirms a strong bullish move, or just a correction, which would suggest bearish continuation towards 0.8800.

GBP/JPY:  Pullback Should be Complete

  • Daily and 4H: The GBP/JPY pair showed us a bearish signal last week by breaking below its short-term rising support. This suggested the completion of a correction, and thus  a continuatin of the previous downswing.
  • This week, the market pared most of the downswing from second half of last week.
  • The bearish outlook towarsd 128.20/128.00 however still stands, BUT is tested at the moment.
  • The 4H time-frame shows the market testing the 138.00 area, coincident with a 200-SMA. There is topping action and the stochastic is in the overbought area.
  • If the market can break below the short-term rising trendline and close below 137.00, it is a bearish signal. This would confirm that this week’s rally was simply a pullback, and improve the probability of the decline towards 128.00.

Fan Yang
Currency Analyst
Commodity Trading Advisor
[email protected]

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. CMS will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses. Foreign currency trading is not conducted on an exchange. CMS is acting as a counterparty to its clients’ transactions and as a result, CMS’ interests may be in conflict with its clients. Since CMS acts as the buyer or seller in the transaction one should carefully evaluate any trade recommendation provided by CMS or any of its solicitors. Foreign currency trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.


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