European Market Update: Greece to sell bonds in first debt offering since EU Summit
Monday, March 29, 2010
European Market Update: Greece to sell bonds in first debt offering since EU Summit
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (FI) Finland Mar Business Confidence: -4.0 v -1.0 prior; Consumer Confidence: 15.4 v 15.9 prior - (GE) German Mar CPI - Saxony M/M: 0.6% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 0.5% prior - (HU) Hungary Feb Unemployment Rate: 11.4% v 10.9%e - (SW) Sweden Feb Retail Sales M/M: -1.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 4.2%e - (GE) German Mar CPI - Brandenberg M/M: 0.3% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.3% prior - (GE) German Mar CPI - Hesse M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.3% prior - (GE) German CPI - North Rhine- Westphalia M/M: 0.6% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.6% prior - (UK) Feb Net Consumer Credit Â£0.5B v Â£0.4Be; Net Lending: Â£1.6B v Â£1.4Be - (UK) Feb Mortgage Approvals: 47.1K v 48.4Ke; lowest reading since May 2009 - (UK) Feb Final M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.2% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.6% prior - (EU) Euro Zone Mar Business Climate: -0.32 v -0.82e; Consumer Confidence: -17 v -17e; Industrial Confidence: -10 v -11e; Economic Confidence: 97.7 v 97.1e; Services Confidence: 1 v 2e
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Equity markets in Europe have followed the strong trading sentiment that was set by mainland China. Solid trading gains in Asia boosted pre-market sentiment that helped pave over geo-political quakes. Coordinated terror attacks in Russia and the announcement of a 10-year prison term for former Rio [RIO.UK] employee and Australian national Stern Hu, failed to temper positive rotation. In further IPO news, German chemical distributer Brenntag [BNR.GE] has had a solid start, opening at â‚¬51.10 after pricing its â‚¬747.5M offering at â‚¬50.00. In IPO spin-offs, the UK's Carphone Warehouse [CPW.UK] spun off its hardline phone and internet provider TalkTalk [TALK.UK] on the LSE. In trading themes, rallies in input prices (minerals, energy) along with financials drove the upward movement in Europe. In individual movers, shares of Vodafone [VOD.UK] traded higher on renewed speculation of a deal with its US mobile JV partner Verizon [VZ]. Renault [RNO.FR] and Daimler [DAI.GE] continued their upward drift on continued reports of an asset swap dance between the auto makers. Turnover in luxury retail name Bulgari [BUL.IT], driven by off the cuff comments from Swatch [UHR.SZ] CEO has lifted the European luxury retail sector on further consolidation rumor. Markets have been broadly positive, but choppy on the session with the opening salvos of Greece's next PDMA 7-year Eurobond offering pricing reminding equities of continued jitters on the sovereign front.
- Individual equities: Rio [RIO.UK]: Shanghai Court rules all 4 Rio Tinto exec guilty of bribery and spying charges; Stern Hu guilty, sentenced to 10 years in prison. || Antisom [ASM.UK]: ATTRACT-1 phase III trial of ASA404 halted following interim analysis. || Deutsche Post World [DPW.GE] As expected German gov agreed to cut some tax privileges extended to firm. || Anglo Platinum [AMS.SA]: Secondary offering received valid subscriptions for 24.76M shares (99.5% of offering). || Siemens [SIE.GE]: To construct wind turbine factory in UK valued at apprx Â£80M; to employ apprx 700 positions. ||
- Speakers: China central bank (PBoC) commented in a 2010 research outlook that it would strengthen study of international issues and closely monitor global economic changes. The PBoC acknowledged it faced more difficulty in Macroeconomic controls It would increase financial reports for economic restructuring and would step up study of its policies and tools *** IMF's Strauss-Kahn called for greater coordinated effort in European economic policy to support growth *** China's National Social Security Fund (NSSF) head Dai: USD to remain key global currency. It believed that the European sovereign debt situation would not escalate and the fund would increase investments both in the US and the EU. He remained confident on Chinese equities in the long run but noted it could experience volatility in 2010 *** China's PBoC announced Monetary Policy Committee changes. It noted that Fan Gang would no longer be part of Monetary Policy Committee and added Zhou Qiren, Li Daokui and Xia Bin as new members***German DIW Institute revised their Q1 GDP forecast slightly higher to 0.3% from 0.2% prior due to the improved position of the industrial sector. The institute noted that performance of other sectors was curbing the growth ***
- Currencies/Fixed Income: March will likely go out like a lion as a busy calendar lurks ahead ahead with Friday's release of US payroll data. The dollar was softer across the European board on Monday with its weakness being blamed on stop-loss orders and receding Greek fears. Several Germany states indicated that inflation accelerated in March although they remain well below the ECB's 2.0% ceiling. EUR/USD tested above the 1.35 level before retracing a bit. The Greece PDMA looks posed to issue 7-year bonds in its first auction since the arrangement from last week's EU summit. The initial pricing indicated at over 300bps over mid swaps. GBP/USD retested the 1.50 area but receded a bit of its session gains after Mortgage Approvals data registered their lowest reading since May 2009 at 47.1K.
- Geo-Political: The metro system in Russia has been attacked by what appears to be a coordinated two part suicide bombing. Initial reports from Russian authorities state that two female suicide bombers have killed upwards of 37 people at two metro stations. Speculation that the attack is Chechen/Dagestan/Ingush linked has been made. The Metro system was similarly attacked in Feb of 2004, an event that claimed the lives of 41. Female attackers have been prominent in previous Chechen attacks including the Beslan and Dubrovka Theater sieges. *** Chinese courts in Shanghai have sentenced four former Rio employees. Stern Hu (an Australian national) was found guilty on both counts (bribery and spying). Hu was sentenced to a 10-year imprisonment term while Wang and Yong were sentenced to 15 years, Ge was sentenced to 8 years *** Italy is now in the second day of regional elections that have so far been characterized by low turnout. Sunday figures put the expectation for final figures at below 47%. Pundits have stated that a low turnout would be negative for Berlusconi and his party as 11 of the 13 regions being contested are taking place in regions currently held by the opposition
***Notes/Observations: - Dozens killed in two separate Moscow subway blasts; suicide bombers suspected - German inflation data shows higher MoM readings - Greece to issue 7-year Euro-denominated bond - Japan Retail Sales +4.2% y/y. Fastest since 1997 - Shanghai stock index futures launch met with excited buying. - China sentences Rio's Hu to 10 years in jail for bribery - US nonfarm payrolls report is expected to be firmly positive
***Looking Ahead: - 8:00 (HU) Hungary Central bank Interest rate Decision: Consensus expectations is for 25bps cut in the Base rate to 5.50% - 8:30 (US) Feb Personal Income: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Personal Spending: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior - 8:30 (US) Feb PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.45 prior; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 1.8%e v 2.1% prior - 10:30 (US) Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: No est v -0.1% prior - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Shop center Sales Y/Y: No est v 18.2% prior - (GE) Germany Final/Preliminary CPI M/M: % v %; Y/Y: % v % - (GE) Germany Final/Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: % v %; Y/Y: % v % - 12:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Jenkins - 12:45 (EU) ECB's Orphanides - 12:45 (UK) BOE's Dale
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