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Monday March 29, 2010 - 10:06:20 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Calendar Dirruptions

The Daily Forex View


Calendar Disruptions

10:00 GMT- Mar 29 (global-view.com) This is a partial week should be a for some markets, with several centers closed on Friday and Monday. The BLS has refused to give U.S. traders all a break, as they will release weekly employment data on Friday. Only the U.S. will be open at that time on Friday. It will then close mid-morning once the data are out. Street estimates are for the first strongly positive monthly employment growth (+200 to 300K jobs), with employment bolstered by temporary census hiring and a bounce back from the poor weather in February. So far we have noticed that the March weather related recovery in economic statistics has been minimal.   

The EUR has recovered vs. the USD and on its crosses in several cases today following the agreement last week to help bail out Greece from its budget mess. The term of the accord still remain rather vague, but market concerns seem to be fading. Its important to keep in mind that Europe is not unhappy with a weakening Eur with inflation not a concern at the present time.

The JPY is steady vs. the USD but sharply lower vs. Europe. The government has been putting relentless political pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to combat deflation. The government wants the central bank to do more to spur economic growth. One strategy for stimulating growth and encouraging price increases is a weaker currency policy. 

Today in North America, U.S. personal income data will be released. Eurpean clocks are back in synch with those in the U.S.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


FOREX

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 9:53
EUR 1.3475 61 JPY 124.64 58 JPY 138.58 78
GBP 1.4982 83 GBP 89.94 -9 CHF 159.09 35
CHF 1.0619 -36 CHF 1.4309 16 CHF vs.    
JPY 92.50 1       JPY 87.11 30

EUR/USD is higher. The equity correlation trade has been working off and on. The ECB has been backing away gradually from extraordinary policy. Worries about the weaker Eurozone economies have been a weight off and on.

EUR/CHF is up.
USD/CHF is down. The SNB periodically has been intervening in the EURCHF cross. 

USD/JPY is steady. EUR/JPY is up. The Japanese  government and BOJ have reconciling their differences and are pursuing ant-deflationary policies.

GBP/USD is up and the EUR/GBP is unchanged. Political uncertainty and mixed data have been triggering instability in the GBP.


COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies

  

Commodity         9:53
CAD 1.0207 -57 AUD 0.9127 93 Gold 1110 2.90
CNY 6.8274 -5 NZD 0.7092 51 WTI 80.71 0.66

The CAD is stronger. The Bank of Canada is becoming less dovish as the economy stabilizes. Canada will be one of the early major economies to raise interest rates.

The AUD and NZD are up. Quarterly rate hikes are seen from the RBA this in 2Q10. The RBNZ has signaled a rate hike by mid-year.

Gold and Oil are higher. Gold, oil, equities and the commodity currencies are all carry trades. Gold is another anti-dollar.


EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           9:53
NIK 10986 -10 DAX 6160 40 DJIA 10850 1
HSI 21237 184 FTSE 5715 12 S&P 1167 2
SSEC 3124 65 SMI 6851 0 NAS 2395 2
ASX 4897 0       TSE 11957 20

Far East equity markets closed mixed to higher. European bourses are higher. U.S. stocks are better. The U.S. 10-yr note is 3.87%, +2bp. 

Fixed income markets are vulnerable as they consider the prospect of an end to excessive Fed ease and large borrowing needs by the the U.S. government. Nevertheless. Fed Funds should remain low for an extended time period.


John M. Bland  is an author, and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the  Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.


 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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