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Monday March 29, 2010 - 10:42:00 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 29/03/2010

ForexPros Daily Analysis March 29, 2010


Fundamental Analysis: GDP (QoQ)

Traders of the UK anticipate the publication of the GDP measurement. The
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity
and is a key indicator for the economy's health. The quarterly percent
changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole. A higher
than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while
a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the
GBP. Analysts predict a future reading of 0.30%.

---

Euro Dollar

The Euro continued to rise from last week's low, Friday's low, and the
10-month low 1.3266. It challenged the important resistance 1.3453,
surpassed it clearly. But in spite of that we wonder: Can it go back to
uptrend? The collapse which happened late last week is completely expected,
not only that, but we believe what we have seen yet is just part one of a
strong and massive medium term drop which has already started! We will not
be a bit surprised when we see the Euro below 1.30 in the near future, on
the contrary, we look forward with eager to that. But after dropping from
1.38 to 1.32 in a few days, a rising correction is normal & logical thing
and holds no surprises. Thus, we should focus of the projected targets for
this correction. As for the short term, we see resistance at the nearby
1.3453, and the EURUSD will stay harmed, trading under a very negative
technical outlook as long as we are below this resistance. But if a surprise
takes us above this level one more time, we will correct the last wave down
from 1.38. Ideal targets for such a correction are 1.3541 & 1.3606. As for
the support it is at 1.3385 and breaking it would indicate a continuation of
the drop. We do expect large targets to be met for the short term, such as
1.3283 & 1.3190.

Support:
* 1.3385: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from yesterday's bottom.
* 1.3283: Thursday's low.
* 1.3190: Apr 30th low.

Resistance:
* 1.3453: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
* 1.3541: Fibonacci 50% for the drop from 1.3816.
* 1.3606: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.3816.

---

USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen did not move a lot on Friday, and failed to create any moves that
could change the technical picture. As we said on the last report of the
past week, what is important can be seen when taking a look at the daily
chart, and spotting that break of a one year old trend line which frustrated
the Dollar deeply on 3 previous occasions. This break turns the medium term
outlook to positive, after breaking 90.78 did the same for the short term
outlook. With this break, the Dollar has released itself from pressure, and
the direction of the Dollar in this pair could now agree with its direction
against the European currencies, and we could end up seeing a board Dollar
rally against all majors. After this rocketing rise, a correction is
normally expected, and here, the previous critical resistance 90.78 has
turned to a support that the price should hold above. Short term support is
at 92.29 & breaking it would indicate a drop to 91.34 first, and may be then
another drop to 90.78 to retest it. If price holds above it, or at least
close to it, there will be no harm. But it we go back below this level, the
positive technical outlook will get hit hard. As for the resistance it is at
92.77 & if broken, the current rise will continue, and the Dollar will rise
to a new set of important targets above 93 which includes: 93.20 & 93.75.

Support:
* 92.29: Friday's low.
* 91.34: short term Fibonacci 50% support.
* 90.78: the previous magnetic resistance, which turned to the most
important support now

Resistance:
* 92.77: important intraday resistance.
* 93.20: Jan 4th high.
* 93.75: Jan 8th high.

---


Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji
for ForexPros.

---

Disclaimer:

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for
all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for
you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You
may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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