The U.S. Dollar is trading lower against most major
currencies as trader demand for risk is helping to pressure the Greenback. The
weakness in the Dollar is being attributed to optimism in the Euro Zone over
the potential positive impact of the new European Union and International
Monetary Fund bailout proposal for Greece. Before the New York session
opening, the theme of the day is demand for risk.
The EUR USD is up for the second consecutive day as weak
shorts continue to cover after late last weekâ€™s EU and IMF proposal to help Greece should
it be unable to find financing in the capital markets. The proposal amounts to
a pledge to help Greece
out of the Euro Regionâ€™s biggest deficit if it runs out of traditional financing
options. Today, Greece
is expected to issue bonds priced in Euros. This will be the first test as to
how investors perceive the viability of the aforementioned bailout proposal.
The charts indicate the Euro has formed a new main range at
1.3817 to 1.3267. This range creates an upside target at the retracement zone
at 1.3542 to 1.3607. According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report, as of
March 23rd, hedge funds and large speculators account for a record net short
74,917 positions. The large number of shorts, the news regarding Greece and the
chart formation all suggest that this market is ripe for a short-covering
rally. Fresh buyers are likely to remain scarce until the Greek economy can
The stronger Euro is pressuring the USD CHF. The higher the
Euro rises, the less likely the Swiss National Bank is going to intervene to
protect its economy and currency. A better Euro will also allow the SNB to
focus on the possibility of an interest rate hike at its next meeting. The
charts indicate that a new lower top has been formed at 1.0751. Overnight a
minor retracement level at 1.0628 to 1.0600 has been tested. A break under
1.0600 is likely to trigger an acceleration to the downside with 1.0513 the
next likely target.
Demand for riskier currencies is helping to boost the GBP
USD. This currency pair is still in a downtrend, but beginning to show signs of
the formation of a secondary higher bottom at 1.4797. Regaining a key
retracement area at 1.5010 to 1.5080 could trigger additional short-covering,
but the trend will remain down until 1.5381 is violated. Fundamentally,
although the British Pound is up because of expectations of improvements in Greece, the U.K. continues to face fiscal
problems of its own. The wide deficit as well as the possibility of a debt
rating cut, continue to weigh on the currency. Uncertainty regarding the
upcoming election and the possibility of a â€śhung Parliamentâ€ť continues to
Signs that the global recovery is gathering momentum could
continue to underpin the USD JPY. Although this market is technically
overbought after last weekâ€™s surge to the upside, buying could resume today if U.S. equity
markets continue to push higher. Additional pressure could be on the Yen
following strong rallies in gold and crude oil. The charts indicate that the
January top at 93.77 remains the next likely upside target. 91.35 should
provide good support if tested.
Greater demand for higher risk assets helped stop the USD
CAD rally in its tracks. The long-term downtrend could resume as traders begin
to price in the strong possibility of an interest rate hike by the Bank of
Canada. Speculators are also anticipating a better U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
Report on Friday. The charts indicate a test of 1.0181 to 1.0152 is likely
should downside momentum continue.
Expectations of better retail sales this week and talk of
another interest rate hike are helping to boost the AUD USD. The overnight
action is indicating that demand for higher yielding assets has returned.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens said
house prices are â€śgetting quite highâ€ť. This signaled to traders that interest
rates may need to be increased further. Stevens also said that borrowing costs
need to be returned to â€śnormalâ€ť levels. Both of these comments are encouraging
traders to by the Aussie. The strong move in the currency has put this market
in a position to test a retracement zone at .9126 to .9155.
Renewed buying in higher risk assets is also giving the NZD
USD a boost. The higher-top, higher-bottom formation suggests that the main
trend is likely to continue up. Regaining a 50% price level at .7124 could
trigger an acceleration to the .618 level at .7199. A break out over the last
swing top at .7178 will reaffirm the uptrend. There is also some speculation that
the Reserve Bank of New
Zealand may raise interest rates as early as
Today, traders will be given the chance to respond to U.S.
Personal Income and Spending. Estimates are for these reports to be steady. The
market mover this week will be Fridayâ€™s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Early
expectations are for an increase of 190,000 jobs, mostly due to the hiring of
census workers. Traders will be able to get an early indication of the
viability of this number on Wednesday when ADP reports private jobs data.
Given the absence of any major economic reports until
Friday, look for traders and speculators to continue to focus on Greece and the
other sovereign debt issues lingering in the Euro Zone economy.
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