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Monday March 29, 2010 - 14:42:30 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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EURUSD: Tip-toeing a very narrow line of support

Key News
•     U.S. Consumer Spending Climbs a Fifth Straight Month as Recovery Quickens  (Bloomberg)
•    Mortgage Payment Spike Blunted The housing market appears as if it will sustain less damage than expected this year from a spike in the monthly payments on hundreds of thousands of exotic adjustable-rate mortgages. (Wall Street Journal)
•     China's Central Bank Taps Scholars  China's central bank named three prominent scholars to its monetary policy committee, expanding the range of its outside advisers at a time when it faces a series of tough decisions on the currency, interest rates and other economic policies. (Wall Street Journal)

Quotable
“If it is once again one against forty-eight, then I am very sorry for the forty-eight.” —Margaret Thatcher

Events

Chris Lori, CTA - FX Workshop
Charlotte, NC
April 16-18

Chris Lori, CTA and Institutional FX Fund Manager, is a leading foreign exchange professional. He is the only institutional insider and Fund Manager who also shares his methods and strategies with other professionals and private traders. Chris will be making his only US appearance in 2010 at his Charlotte, NC workshop.

FX Workshop Includes:
  • 2.5 Days Live Workshop with Chris Lori, CTA and Fund Manager
  • 300 page resource manual
  • Online access to Chris' "Complete FX Course" for Workshop preparation and follow up ($399 value)
  • Online access to "Inside the Banks" - Course on Fundamentals and Interest Rate Spreads ($199 value)
  • 2 Months access to hundreds of training videos and market reviews in Chris Lori's "Pro Traders Club" ($318 value)
  • $900 in Bonuses!!
"This workshop will completely change your view on how to trade in the foreign exchange market!"  —Chris Lori

For detailed information about the workshop and to register to attend this workshop, click here.

FX Trading – Tip-toeing a fine line of support  

Friday was a good day for the euro. But it wasn’t enough to eke out a gain on the week. And that could be very telling.

Have a look ... [Chart not available in text format.]

What Friday’s EURUSD rally was able to do was pull the pair back above critical support (red line); it’s currently hovering there, little changed to start the week.

The fact that the late-week reversal wasn’t able to allow the pair to close higher on the week could indicate that the bears are still in control, that this pair heads even lower before notching any noteworthy gains.

But if traders view last week’s bar as bounce-back, reversal-type price action then maybe this could help propel prices higher in a corrective fashion. And that’s where we’ll be closely watching the weekly downtrend line (blue).

If the euro struggles to break above that line in the next week or so then consider another playable down-leg is coming. On the other hand, a swift move, without hesitation, that sends the euro up through its downtrend will likely glean some follow-through strength. That means prepare for a playable correction, with resistance at $1.3830 being a logical first target (green).

Taking the dollar over the yen in a “sneaky pick.”

Barring a couple monster days to the high side, USDJPY has been fairly quiet during the month of March, after a month of February that resolved to go basically nowhere.

Last Wednesday and Thursday led the pair to break above resistance (red line): [Chart not available in text format.]

Next up, as we think the pair moves still higher from here, would be a move to the early-January spike high (circled). But as the weekly chart below shows, that high is a small obstacle in the grand scheme of things; though a convincing move up through that level would lend a lot of credence to the idea that USDJPY bottomed-out last November.

[Chart not available in text format.]

We’ve got our members prepped and ready for a strong USDJPY; keep an eye on this one to move higher, perhaps quietly, over the next couple weeks.


John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital
www.blackswantrading.com

You want long-term trading ideas like this, with fundamental analysis to boot?

Currency Investor is your answer.

It’s our monthly investment newsletter that keeps you tuned in to major themes impacting currency prices. In addition to all the specific analysis, we include specific recommendations of where you should put your money and when ... in case you don’t want to be left timing your long-term currency investments yourself.

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You can click here to read more.

Or you can click here to sign up using your credit card. (Visit our homepage if you’d like to sign-up using PayPal.)

All the best,

David Newman
Director of Sales and Marketing
Black Swan Capital
dnewman@blackswantrading.com
Phone: 866-846-2672

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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