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Monday March 29, 2010 - 20:27:30 GMT -

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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Range Day

The Daily Forex View

Range Day

20:00 GMT- Mar 29 (  Trade was fairly cautious on Monday it what may be shaping up to be a holiday-constrained week. It seemed that orders related to quarter-end might have been dominating activity. Dealers might not have been of a mind to take a stand at this time. This is also a  partial week for some markets, with several centers closed on Friday and Monday. The BLS will release the March employment data on Friday. Only the U.S. forex market (and bonds?) will be open at that time on Friday. All will then close mid-morning once the data are out. Street estimates are for the first strongly positive monthly employment growth (+200 to 300K jobs), with employment bolstered by temporary census hiring and a bounce back from the poor weather in February. So far we have noticed that the March weather related recovery in economic statistics has been minimal.   

Looks like we have seen short covering over the day in the EUR has vs. the USD and on its crosses. Today saw a new Greek debt issuance that was greeted lukewarmly by most observers. Most traders are still uncertain if Greece and the Eurozone have extricated themselves from this mess. If this is the case, then you have to wonder where the EUR goes once recent short-covering has run its course? Its important to keep in mind that Europe is not unhappy with a weakening currency with inflation not a pressing issue. The EURCHF cross still has not found a definite floor, but SNB tactics might have changed? EURGBP is trading roughly with the EURUSD. The end of this week and the beginning of next is a near-universal holiday period in much of Europe.

The JPY is still  steady vs. the USD and thus is lower vs. Europe. The government has been placing  political pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to do more to combat deflation. The government expects the central bank to do more to spur economic growth. One strategy for stimulating growth and encouraging price increases is a weaker currency policy, and FinMin Kan has been making noises in that direction. End of fiscal year repatriation should end by Wednesday (fiscal year-end).  

The risk trades are doing well Monday. In this group we include: commodity currencies, oil, gold and equities. Bonds are the counter to the risk trades. This is because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up  (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls. On the other hand, the economies of some of the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) continue to outperform.

On Tuesday, the Far East will see more of the usual month-end flood of data from Japan . In Europe, the U.K. will see revisions to 4Q09 GDP. In North America , Canadian PPI data are due. The U.S. will see the Case-Shiller index and the weekly API data.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads


Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 20:04
EUR 1.3470 56 JPY 124.60 53 JPY 138.54 74
GBP 1.4977 78 GBP 89.94 -9 CHF 159.16 41
CHF 1.0627 -28 CHF 1.4315 22 CHF vs.    
JPY 92.50 1       JPY 87.04 24

EUR/USD is higher. The equity correlation trade has been working off and on. The ECB has been backing away gradually from extraordinary policy. Worries about the weaker Eurozone economies have been a weight off and on.

EUR/CHF is up.
USD/CHF is down. The SNB periodically has been intervening in the EURCHF cross. 

USD/JPY is steady. EUR/JPY is up. The Japanese  government and BOJ have reconciling their differences and are pursuing ant-deflationary policies.

GBP/USD is up and the EUR/GBP is unchanged. Political uncertainty and mixed data have been triggering instability in the GBP.

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Commodity         20:04
CAD 1.0211 -53 AUD 0.9167 133 Gold 1108 1.05
CNY 6.8274 -5 NZD 0.7090 49 WTI 82.22 2.17

The CAD is stronger. The Bank of Canada is becoming less dovish as the economy stabilizes. Canada will be one of the early major economies to raise interest rates.

The AUD and NZD are up. Quarterly rate hikes are seen from the RBA this in 2Q10. The RBNZ has signaled a rate hike by mid-year.

Gold and Oil are higher. Gold, oil, equities and the commodity currencies are all carry trades. Gold is another anti-dollar.



Equities           20:04
NIK 10986 -10 DAX 6157 37 DJIA 10900 50
HSI 21237 184 FTSE 5711 8 S&P 1174 9
SSEC 3124 65 SMI 6851 0 NAS 2403 10
ASX 4897 0       TSE 12017 80

Far East equity markets closed mixed to higher. European bourses closed higher. U.S. stocks are better. The U.S. 10-yr note is 3.87%, +1bp. 

Fixed income markets are vulnerable as they consider the prospect of an end to excessive Fed ease and large borrowing needs by the the U.S. government. Nevertheless. Fed Funds should remain low for an extended time period.

John M. Bland  is an author, and co-founder and partner of in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the  Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.


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