Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (29 March 2010)
The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3505
level and was supported around the $1.3420 level. The common currency extended Friday‚Äôs gains
and shook off a terrorist attack in Moscow that killed dozens of people.Data released in Germany today saw March
provisional consumer price inflaton from several German states increase more
significantly from February‚Äôs readings.German March consumer price inflation was up 0.5% m/m and 0.6% y/y while
the EU-harmonized component was up 0.6% m/m and 1.3% y/y.The German February import price index will be
released tomorrow followed by March unemployment data on Wednesday.Data to be released in France tomorrow
include Q4 gross domestic product numbers followed by February producer prices
data on Wednesday.Additionally, the
EMU-16 March business climate indicator improved to -0.32 from the revised prior
reading of -0.65 with a gain eurozone industrial confidence and eurozone
economic confidence, no change in consumer confidence, and a decline in
eurozone services confidence.Data to be
released on Wednesday include the the EMU-16 February unemployment rate and
March EMU-16 consumer price inflation estimate.Dealers paid attention to Greece‚Äôs ‚ā¨5 billion seven-year bond issue today
with some noting investor response was lukewarm at best.Greek finance minister Panaconstantinou
reported ‚ÄúWe needed to go to the market urgently to draw funds (to satisfy) our
loan needs give that markets shut down for around a week for Easter.‚ÄĚ Greece is
expected to borrow around ‚ā¨11.5 billion in May.European Central Bank member Nowotny reported the euro‚Äôs current level
is ‚Äúadequate.‚ÄĚIn U.S. news, data released today saw February personal income and
spending up 0.0% and 0.3%, respectively. Also, the February PCE deflator fell back to
+1.8% y/y and February core PCE readings came in at 0.0% m/m and 1.3% y/y.The U.S. Treasury announced it will sell its
remaining shares in U.S. banking giant Citigroup this year.Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3335
The yen appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested bids around the ¬•92.35 level and was capped around the ¬•92.80
level. The pair‚Äôs range was tight ahead
of the end of the Japanese fiscal year on Wednesday.Data released in Japan overnight saw February
large retailers‚Äô sales increase to -4% from -5.7% in January while February
overall retail trade was up 4.2% y/y.Data
to be released in Japan overnight include February household spending, the
February jobless rate, and February industrial production.Bank of Japan‚Äôs Policy Board is likely to maintain
a very accommodative monetary policy for several more business quarters.New Policy Board member last week Miyao
reported ‚ÄúLowering interest rates even a little bit, or keeping interest rates
at very low levels amid a recovery, may be able to provide more stimulus and
help sustain economic growth‚Ä¶it is important for the central bank to maintain
its accommodative policy stance and provide monetary support for companies and
households‚Ä¶the economy has been picking up recently, but incomes and employment
remain in a severe state, and there are various risks and uncertainties to the
outlook.‚ÄĚThe three-month euroyen
futures rate is trading around 0.439% with the December 2010 rate currently
trading at 0.385%, evidencing a lower market bias on interest rates through the
end of the year. Ten-year yields, however,
are now at their highest level since 12 November 2009.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.09% to close
at ¬•10,986.47.U.S. dollar offers are
cited around the ¬•94.75 level.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen
as the single currency tested offers around the ¬•125.05 level and was supported
around the ¬•124.10 level.The British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¬•139.10 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen and tested offers around the ¬•87.45 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan
as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8264 in the over-the-counter market, down from
CNY 6.8270. People‚Äôs Bank of China added
three economists to its Policy Committee, an indication that it may be giving
more focus to how it will tighten monetary policy in the coming months.Traders are awaiting a report from the U.S.
due on 15 April that may possibly label China as a currency manipulator.Some observers suggest a major trade war
might develop if China is labeled a currency manipulator by the Obama
administration.People‚Äôs Bank of China
advisor Fan Gang last week indicated the central bank may adopt a managed float
of the yuan currency.
British pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5020 level and was supported around the $1.4890 level. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee
member Dale reported quantitative easing policies reduced gilt yields by about
100 bps.Data released in the U.K. today
saw February net lending to individuals rise to ¬£2.1 billion, evidenced that
consumer credit expanded beyond forecasts.Also, the February M4 money supply grew 0.2% m/m and 3.9% y/y.Additionally, February mortgage approvals
growth decelerated to 47,100.Chancellor
of the Exchequer Darling last week reported his latest economic growth forecast
is ‚Äúin line with the Bank of England forecast.‚ÄĚDarling said he plans to ‚Äúreduce borrowing further‚ÄĚ and reduced his
budget deficit forecast for the next five fiscal years by ¬£44 billion.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4455
level.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested bids around the ¬£0.8970 level and was capped around the ¬£0.9025
franc appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0580 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0690 level. The February UBS consumption indicator will be
released tomorrow.The Swiss KOF
Research Institute last week upgraded its 2010 and 2011 economic growth
forecasts for the Swiss economy today to 1.7% and 2.2%, respectively. Consumer
price inflation is expected to be around 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively ‚Äď also an
upgrade from previous forecasts.Swiss
President Leuthard last week said the franc is ‚Äúat a quite crucial level‚ÄĚ and
said it is up to the Swiss National Bank to decide whether to intervene.Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman Jordan
reiterated last week that the central bank will work to prevent excessive franc
appreciation.Swiss National Bank
President Hildebrand last week reported the central bank will ‚Äúdecisively‚ÄĚ act
against ‚Äúexcessive‚ÄĚ franc strength, noting the central bank can intervene to a
‚Äúvery large extent.‚ÄĚU.S. dollar offers
are cited around the CHF 1.1180 level. The
euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested
offers around the CHF 1.4355 level while the
British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers
around the CHF 1.5955 level.
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