equity markets closed higher after trading rangebound for most of the day
session. Investors once again seemed to be shying away from buying strength.
Despite the weaker Dollar, demand for higher yielding equities has been
hampered by light volume and investor unwillingness to take on bigger risk
ahead of this Fridayâ€™s U.S.
employment report. Early guesses are for the jobs data to show an increase of
190,000. Most of the gain is being attributed to U.S. census hiring.
Low volume was also the highlight in the June Treasury Bond
market. The main trend is down but the down side action has slowed considerably
compared to last weekâ€™s heavy selling pressure. Fridayâ€™s employment report may
be keeping many traders on the sidelines. Although yields rose considerably
last week, short-covering and position squaring is likely to be the market
driver until Friday.
June Gold traded better but backed off from its high after
testing a .618 retracement level at $1115.10. Gold finished stronger because of
the weaker Dollar. This relationship is likely to continue over the near term
as traders assess the value of the Dollar following last weekâ€™s EU/IMF bailout
package. The key to higher markets according to the charts will be regaining
$1115.10 on a closing basis.
The weaker Dollar and stronger Euro helped to trigger a
strong rally in June Crude Oil. The surge in crude oil has this market in a
position to test the two recent tops at 83.70 and 83.80. Traders bought crude
oil on the prospect that a resolution of Greeceâ€™s financial problems will
help the Euro Zone economy recover faster, thereby leading to greater demand
for crude oil and energy products.
The U.S. Dollar finished lower against all major currencies
as trader demand for risk helped to pressure the Greenback. The weakness in the
Dollar was attributed to optimism in the Euro Zone over the potential positive
impact of the new European Union and International Monetary Fund bailout
proposal for Greece.
Throughout the day, the major theme was demand for risky assets as equities,
gold and crude oil posted strong gains, supporting the commodity-linked
The June Euro closed up for the second consecutive day as
weak shorts continued to cover their positions in response to last weekâ€™s
EU/IMF Greece bailout agreement. The new plan is designed to help Greece
should it be unable to find financing in the capital markets. The proposal
amounts to a pledge to help Greece
out of the Euro Regionâ€™s biggest deficit if it runs out of traditional
On Monday, Greece
issued new 7-year financing priced in Euros. This $7 billion offering was the
first test as to how investors perceive the viability of the aforementioned
bailout plan. According to reports, the bond issue went off without a hitch
although the Greek government paid about a 3.10 basis point premium to complete
the sale. The relative ease of the bond issue helped relax tensions allowing
the Euro to remain firm throughout the day
The charts indicate the Euro has formed a new main range at
1.3817 to 1.3267. This range creates an upside target at the retracement zone
at 1.3542 to 1.3607. According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report, as of
March 23rd, hedge funds and large speculators account for a record net short
74,917 positions. The large number of shorts, the news regarding Greece
and the chart formation all suggest that this market is ripe for a
short-covering rally. Fresh buyers are likely to remain scarce until the Greek
economy can prove itself.
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