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Tuesday March 30, 2010 - 10:05:50 GMT -

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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Quarter-end

The Daily Forex View


10:00 GMT- Mar 30 (  The Japanese fiscal yearend and the quarter-end tomorrow are the focus of short-term traders today. Keep in mind that in the interbank forex market, spot trades for two business days ahead for the most part. Also that this is a major holiday period mostly in Europe, with many centers closed on Friday and Monday, so many will want to maintain a low profile into the end of the week. Also of interest, the key March U.S. employment data will be released on Friday when many U.S. markets will be closed. Those markets which are open will then close mid-morning once the data are out. Street estimates are for the first strongly positive monthly employment growth (+200 to 300K jobs), with employment bolstered by temporary census hiring and a bounce back from the poor weather in February. So far we have noticed that the March weather related recovery in economic statistics has been minimal.   

The EUR is steady vs. the USD and on its crosses. The EURGBP is weaker. Many traders are still uncertain if Greece and the Eurozone have extricated themselves from their funding mess. If so, then one must wonder where the EUR goes once recent short-covering has run its course? Its important to keep in mind that Europe is not unhappy with a weakening currency with inflation not a pressing issue. 

The JPY is still  steady vs. the USD and Europe. The government has been placing  political pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to do more to combat deflation. The government expects the central bank to do more to spur economic growth. One strategy for stimulating growth and encouraging price increases is a weaker currency policy.

The risk trades in the commodity currencies are doing well at his hour.  Oil, gold and equities are mixed. In U.S. Treasuries, the focus is on the 10-yr note and the psychological 4.00% level. Bonds are the counter to the risk trades. This is because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up  (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls

In North America , Canadian PPI data are due. The U.S. will see the Case-Shiller index and the weekly API data.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads


Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 9:56
EUR 1.3471 1 JPY 124.65 5 JPY 139.56 103
GBP 1.5083 106 GBP 89.31 -63 CHF 160.27 111
CHF 1.0626 -1 CHF 1.4314 0 CHF vs.    
JPY 92.53 3       JPY 87.08 4

EUR/USD is easier. The equity correlation trade has been working off and on. The ECB has been backing away gradually from extraordinary policy. Worries about the weaker Eurozone economies have been a weight off and on.

EUR/CHF is steady.
USD/CHF is unchanged. The SNB periodically has been intervening in the EURCHF cross. 

USD/JPY is steady. EUR/JPY is steady as well. The Japanese  government and BOJ have reconciling their differences and are pursuing ant-deflationary policies.

GBP/USD is up and the EUR/GBP is down. Political uncertainty and mixed data have been triggering instability in the GBP.

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Commodity         9:56
CAD 1.0180 -31 AUD 0.9200 33 Gold 1110 1.40
CNY 6.8268 -6 NZD 0.7122 32 WTI 82.04 -0.18

The CAD is stronger. The Bank of Canada is becoming less dovish as the economy stabilizes. Canada will be one of the early major economies to raise interest rates.

The AUD and NZD are up. Quarterly rate hikes are seen from the RBA this in 2Q10. The RBNZ has signaled a rate hike by mid-year.

Gold and Oil are lower. Gold, oil, equities and the commodity currencies are all carry trades. Gold is another anti-dollar.



Equities           9:56
NIK 11097 111 DAX 6157 1 DJIA 10896 -4
HSI 21375 137 FTSE 5708 -2 S&P 1173 0
SSEC 3128 4 SMI 6878 0 NAS 2404 1
ASX 4917 20       TSE 12030 13

Far East equity markets closed mixed to higher. European bourses are higher. U.S. stocks are better. The U.S. 10-yr note is 3.86%, -1bp. 

Fixed income markets are vulnerable as they consider the prospect of an end to excessive Fed ease and large borrowing needs by the the U.S. government. Nevertheless. Fed Funds should remain low for an extended time period.

John M. Bland  is an author, and co-founder and partner of in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the  Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
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