European Market Update: secondary trading of the Greek recent 7-year bond issue will be a key sentiment gauge
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
European Market Update: secondary trading of the Greek recent 7-year bond issue will be a key sentiment gauge
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (SZ) Swiss Feb UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.20 v 1.32 prior - (UK) Mar Nationwide House Price M/M: 0.7% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 9.0% v 8.2%e - (GE) Germany Feb Import Price Index M/M: 1.0% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.0%e - (SA) South Africa Feb Private Sector Credit Y/Y: % v -1.1%e - (FR) France Q4 Final Gross Domestic Product Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.3%e - (HU) Hungary Feb Producer Prices M/M: 0.9% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: -2.8% v -2.7%e - (SP) Spain Mar Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.1%e - (SP) Spain Feb Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.1% v -4.5% prior; Adj Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.4% v -0.7%e - (NO) Norway Feb Retail Sales Volume M/M: 0.3% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 2.8%e - (UK) Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -3.1% v -3.3%e - (UK) Q4 Current Account: -Â£1.7B v -Â£5.1Be; narrowest deficit since Q1 2008 - (HK) Hong Kong Feb Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 35.8% v 39.0%e; Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 31.5% v 31.7%e - (PO) Portugal Mar Consumer Confidence: -35.4 v -34.4 prior; Economic Climate: -0.5 v -0.8 prior - (BE) Belgium Mar CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 0.7% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Equity markets continued their run up to new 18-month highs in early trading before paring back from their best levels. Markets have been relatively muted with a mixed session in Asia and the looming 4-day Easter holiday weekend pending. Greece's 'successful' 7-year bond offering yesterday and growing concerns regarding the terms that will be released from Ireland's NAMA after the close have served as a break within the financial sector (ex UBS [UBSN.SZ] which reportedly expects a strong result from its fixed income arm in Q1) . Initial equity upside momentum was based on strength in the mining and heavy manufacturing sectors as BHP [BHP.AU] and VALE [VALE] announced new ore contract terms and analysts at DB confirmed Salzgitter [SZG.GE] commentary that higher input costs would be washed out by higher selling prices. Pre-market news flow saw reports from Swiss Life [SLHN.SZ] and Russian lender VTB Bank [VTBR.RU]. Highlights from the pre-market session included confirmation from NAB [NAB.AU] that it had hammered out terms with AXA [CS.FR] for the multi-billion AUD acquisition of AXA Asia Pacific [AXA.AU]. In continued IPO news, Chinese appliance manufacturer Joyou [JY8.GE] opened strongly at â‚¬14.75 after pricing at â‚¬13/share. Standard Chartered [STAN.UK] moved closer to an IDR listing in India by formally filing its intention with market regulators. Into 5:30EST, markets have dropped to the unchanged mark while trading on mixed volumes.
Individual equities: Kazakhmys [KAZ.UK]: Reports final FY09 underlying profit $602M v $1.1B y/y, Rev $2.4B v $3.2B y/y. || Wendel [MF.FR]: Reports final FY09 Net loss â‚¬918.3M v loss â‚¬540Me, Rev â‚¬4.86B v â‚¬5.0Be; Expects 2010 economic environment to remain difficult. || Swiss Life [SLHN.SZ]: FY09 Op income CHF206M v -CHF1.08B y/y, Net profit CHF277M v CHF282Me, Rev CHF2.19B v CHF1.44B y/y. ||
- Speakers: IMF's Strauss Kahn commented in a newspaper interview that (GR) IMF's Strauss Kahn: Ready to provide loan to Greece if asked; Will impose conditions on any loan. It did note that Greece's action on wage cuts and tax increases were the correct steps to take. ***Fed Evans commented that the current US monetary policy was appropriate as concerns over inflation were small. Higher US savings will help with its trade deficit ***IMF's Belka commented that Eastern European currency gains might impact economic growth in region. The official urged lenient monetary policy coupled with discipline fiscal approach and added that the EU must discourage foreign currency loan. Central bank currency interventions must be a last resort*** China Commerce Ministry reiterated CNY currency issue cannot resolve trade imbalances between US and China and stressed that political threats would not resolve the situation ***Bank of Spain (BOS) forecasted 2010 GDP down 0.4% while growth resuming in 2011 with the GDP seen +0.8%. it noted that the Spanish Gov't spending cuts targets were 'very ambitious'. It cautioned that the bad debts would restrict bank lending in 2010 and that the housing correction was not over at this time. The central bank forecasted 2010 budget deficit at 10.2% of GDP and 2011 ratio at 8.9% of GDP. It saw 2011 Unemployment at 19.7%. ***G-20 Steering Group/Hosts (Canada and South Korea) stated that further work was required for restoration of sound bank balance sheets. It reiterated the view that World economy remained fragile and that currency and trade policies must continue to support economic growth. Strong rules on bank capital and liquidity rates were necessary and sought regulated exchange trading for OTC derivative products *** UKChancellor Darling reiterated that rebalancing of UK economy would take time. He did note that now was a good time for UK exporters due to declining decline in GBP; Flat growth in Euro Zone a factor why weaker currency is not boosting exports ***German IFO: Firms reported an easing of credit situation in March period ***
- Currencies/Fixed Income: The session began with a degree of risk appetite ahead of quarter end and provided with a softer USD and JPY tone. European inflation data continued to be above analyst expectations and the German Import data also suggested the inflationary implications of a weaker euro currency The EUR/USD tested 1.3537 in the early part of the session before submitted to the continuing peripherals concerns. The spread between the Greek 10-year and the respective Bunds continued to widened towards the 330bps area. Dealers are noting that the secondary trading of the Greek 7-year bond will be a key sentiment gauge. market will be looking to see how this deal performs over the next few days, The Bank of Spain provided its forecasts for GDP and deficit matters and noted that the government's spending cuts targets were 'very ambitious'. France was hit by vague sovereign downgrade rumors ahead of the NY morning. EUR/USD just off 1.3450 as the NY morning approached ***The GBP outperformed the European pairs aided by a slightly revised higher Q4 GDP data. EUR/GBP at 0.8945 and is lower by 55 pips from the Asian open. GBP/USD. near 1.5070 as the NY morning approached.
- Geo-Political: BHP Billiton and VALE have succeeded in pushing new contract length terms on Japanese steel names. The new, quarterly based contracts represent a move away from a 40-year tradition that had set yearly delivery contacts as the industry benchmark. VALE has entered an April-June contract with Nippon Steel at $105/ton, a price point that reflects at 90% y/y increase.*** After the close of trading today we expect to see the release of terms from the Irish Fin Min and NAMA regarding pricing of toxic assets. The terms are expected to show first tranche haircuts of 30-40% along with regulation setting minimum capital levels at 7%. The regulations are expected to lead to further capital raises and the possible nationalization of additional Building Societies in Ireland. *** Italian PM Berlusconi has achieved a surprisingly strong victory in regional elections with his coalition taking 6 of 13 votes (had previously held only 2 regions). The election was characterized by low turnout but bucked a trend that had been seen in other off-season elections in Europe and the US.
***Notes/Observations: - Growing political spat between PBoC and the China Commerce Ministry on the Yuan currency - The 10-year Spread between Greece and Germany continue to widened towards 330bps; Secondary trading of Greek 7-year issue seen as key - UK Q4 GDP revised slightly upwards (better)
***Looking Ahead*** - (PO) Bank of Portugal Spring Economic Bulletin - (PO) Portugal Feb Industrial Production M/M: % v -2.2% prior; Y/Y: % v 0.6% prior - (PO) Portugal Feb Retail Sales M/M: % v 5.2% prior; Y/Y: % v 0.7% prior - 6:30 (US) Fed Evans - 7:00 (BR) Brazil Mar FGV Inflation M/M: 1.0%e v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 0.2% prior - 7:45 (US) ICSC Weekly Chain Store Sales - 8:00 (CL) Chile Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: 0.8%e v -1.1% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 0.4%e v -0.5% prior - 8:00 (CL) Chile Feb Unemployment Rate:8.8%e v 8.7% prior - 8:00 (CL) Chile Feb Copper Production: No est v 424.0K tons prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Feb Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Raw Material Price Index M/M: -0.5%e v 3.3% prior - 8:55 (US) Redbook Weekly Chain Store Sales - 9:00 (US) Jan S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index: 145.0e v 145.9 prior; Composite-20 Y/Y: -0.6%e v -3.1% prior - 10:00 (US) Mar Consumer Confidence: 51.0e v 46.0 prior - 12:00 (US) Former Fed Chair Volker on financial reform - 12:45 (UK) BOE's Haldane in Hong Kong - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 11.4% prior - 16:30 (MX) Mexico Feb Budget Balance YTD (MXN): No est v 6.4B prior - 16:30 (US) API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
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