Tuesday March 30, 2010 - 11:45:00 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 30-Mar-2010 - 1243 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0619/22...Ranged
R: 1.0641-56 / 1.0690 / 1.0757
S: 1.0614-0590 / 1.0536-20 / 1.0435
Dollar-Swiss has found some Support at today's Max Low generated in the morning. The consolidation that we had expected between 1.0650 and 1.0580 has happened during the Asian and may continue during the US session as well.
Though we would prefer the pair to be ranged, a break below the crucial Support at 1.0580 would lead to a test of 1.0491 (medium term trend Support). On the upside, long term Trendline Resistance is available at 1.0814 which doesn't seem to be in danger at all at the moment.
GBP-USD @ 1.5088/92...Immediate Resistance at 1.5100-20 region
R: 1.5100-20 / 1.5170-1.5200 / 1.5245
S: 1.5060-45 / 1.5020-00 / 1.4950
Cable has risen in the Asian Session today as expected and is trading just below 1.51. If the current upside momentum continues, a break above the immediate Resistance at 1.5100-20 might take it further up towards 1.5170-5200. However, the broader picture continue to remain bearish and we might see a pull back from the Resistance at 1.5170-1.5200 region.
On the downside Support is seen at 1.5020-00 region a break below which might pull it down towards 1.4950.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell GBP 10K at 1.5145, SL 1.5235, TP Open
AUD-USD @ 0.9205/08...Resistance near 0.9214-31-60 crucial
S: 0.9156 / 0.9138-16 / 0.9054-31
Aussie has faced Resistance from the 0.9214-31-60 Resistance region mentioned in the morning. This Resistance looks strong enough and may not give in easily. Just to remind: this is the long term Trend Resistance [Trendline formed by joining the highs of 16-Nov-09 (0.9405), 14-Jan-10 (0.9327), 17-Mar-10 (0.9251)]
A break of this trendline if seen could turn the pair very bullish ahead of the RBA scheduled in early April. Next immediate target would then be 0.9400. But till it does not there is no reason why it should not continue in the downward expanding wedge on the weekly candles. And hence the pair may come down over the next few weeks after testing the Support To see the chart of Aussie and the expanding wedge, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml#candle
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