U.S. Equity Markets Set to Open Better; Continue to Expect Low Volume
Based on firm Asian equity markets, U.S. stock
indices are called better, but traders should brace for another day of light
volume and low volatility. The slightly weaker Dollar is lending some support
to higher risk assets overnight, but traders seem reluctant to take a major
position ahead of this Fridayâ€™s U.S. Jobs Data.
June Treasury Bonds and June Treasury Notes continue to
trade in a tight range on light volume. Last week yields in both of these
instruments rose substantially as demand was less than stellar at the bond and
note auctions. This week traders are standing aside because of Fridayâ€™s U.S.
Jobs Report. Traders are reluctant to take a sizeable position ahead of this
important report. Oversold conditions could trigger a short-covering rally as
traders may lighten up positions ahead of the report.
The direction of the Dollar will dictate the direction in
June Gold today. With inflation â€śsubduedâ€™ and the situation in Greece under
control, it looks as if gold will have to rely on the Dollar today. Holding
about $1109.30 is supportive while an acceleration to the upside is likely if
this market can overcome $1115.20.
Stronger demand for higher risk should help to boost June
Crude Oil, but this market may trade in a tight range unless the Euro turns
positive. Upside momentum is building which could drive this market through a
pair of main tops at 83.70 and 83.80.
The June British Pound is posting a strong gain overnight
following an upward revision in Fourth Quarter GDP. The final GDP figure showed
the economy expanded by 0.4% during the fourth quarter, up from the previous
estimate of 0.3%. Economists claim upward revisions in services and
construction were responsible for the increase.
Additional support was provided by an unexpected narrowing
of the current account deficit. Finally, the Nationwide home price index blew
out the pre-report estimate. Economists had called for an expansion of 0.4%
which was exceeded by the actual number of 0.7%.
The daily chart indicates the main trend is still down but
the market has formed a secondary higher bottom at 1.4790. Overnight the market
is testing a key 50% level at 1.5076. Regaining this area could lead to an
acceleration to the upside.
Upside momentum is slowing in the June Euro as the buzz over
the European Union/International Monetary Fund Greece bailout plan seems to be
fading. Last nightâ€™s rally stopped short of completing a 50% retracement of the
1.3817 to 1.3267 range at 1.3542. This could indicate that a short-term
retracement to 1.3402 may be necessary to confirm the recent bottom and to
attract fresh buyers.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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