20:00 GMT- Mar 30 (global-view.com) The approaching quarter-end, the Japanese fiscal yearend and the Easter break all had an impact on trade Tuesday. Keep in mind that in the interbank forex market, spot trades for two business days ahead for the most part, so this process can extend across several days.. Many will be hanging in through the end of the week because the key March U.S. employment data will be released on Friday when most European and most U.S. markets will be closed. The U.S. markets which are open will close mid-morning once the data are out. Street estimates are for the first strongly positive monthly employment growth in a while (+200 to 300K jobs), with employment bolstered by temporary census hiring and a bounce back from the poor weather in February. So far we have noticed that the March weather related recovery in economic statistics has been minimal.
The EUR has traded heavy vs. the USD and its crosses Tuesday. Some say much of the EUR selling came out of the EURGBP cross. Earlier in the day there were also widespread rumors about a French sovereign debt downgrade, but Fitch affirmed the French AAA rating and outlook mid-morning in North America. A French downgrade would have been devastating for the EUR. Although the issue seems to be fading, many are still uncertain about whether Greece and the Eurozone have extricated themselves from their recent mess. Even if they have, one must still wonder where the EUR goes once short- covering demand has run its course? It is important to accept that Europe is not unhappy with a weakening currency while inflation is not a pressing issue.
One can never count on these things panning out, but there has been a lot of chatter today that for a variety of reasons there are a number of long JPY hedges that have to be unwound. Corporations reportedly have over hedged (bought the JPY against) currencies such as the USD based on projected USD sales. These excessively long JPY positions will have to be closed. This activity will be coming just as the fiscal year ends (Wednesday) and repatriation demand for the JPY wanes. Expect no official opposition to a weaker JPY. Tokyo wants its currency to weaken as one strategy for stimulating growth and encouraging price increases is a weaker currency.
The risk trades are sending a mixed signal today. The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are all higher Oil, gold and U.S. equities are mixed. In U.S. Treasuries, the focus is on the 10-yr note and the psychological 4.00% level. Bonds are the counter to risk trades. This is because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls.
On Wednesday, Japan will see its March PMI and Australiawill see retail sales data. In Europe , European unemployment andHICP data are due. Switzerlandwill release the KOF leading indicator. In North America, U.S.mortgage statistics are due along with ADP private jobs survey is set. Furthermore the Chicago PMI, Factory Orders and Weekly crude inventories are due. Canadawill release its latest GDP report.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
EUR/USD is easier. The equity correlation trade has been working off and on. The ECB has been backing away gradually from extraordinary policy. Worries about the weaker Eurozone economies have been a weight off and on.
EUR/CHF is steady. USD/CHFis higher. The SNB periodically has been intervening in the EURCHF cross.
USD/JPY is up. EUR/JPY is steady as well. The Japanese government and BOJ have reconciling their differences and are pursuing ant-deflationary policies.
GBP/USD is up and the EUR/GBP is down. Political uncertainty and mixed data have been triggering instability in the GBP.
Far East equity markets closed mixed to higher. European bourses
closed mixed. U.S. stocks are mixed. The U.S. 10-yr note is 3.87%, -1bp.
Fixed income markets are vulnerable as they consider the prospect of an end to excessive Fed ease and large borrowing needs by the the U.S. government. Nevertheless. Fed Funds should remain low for an extended time period.
John M. Bland is an author, and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
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09:30 US- GB- GDP
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15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
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POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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